Morgan Stanley’s Greater China technology team now expects 54 million iPhones to be assembled during the September quarter, up from a previous estimate of 50 million.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) may be poised for a turnaround, according to Morgan Stanley, which has raised its iPhone build projections for the September quarter, signaling stronger-than-anticipated demand.
The firm’s Greater China technology team now expects 54 million iPhones to be assembled during the period, up from a previous estimate of 50 million, as per TheFly. This adjustment stems from solid June quarter sales that had slashed channel inventory.
Apple stock inched 0.7% lower on Friday afternoon. While the revised figure represents flat growth from a year earlier, it aligns closely with Morgan Stanley’s existing forecast of 55 million shipments for Q3.
According to a CNBC report, analyst Erik Woodring said that the firm is ‘turning more bullish’ on Apple’s outlook, citing pent-up replacement demand, better-than-expected channel activity in China, and product pricing flexibility as supportive forces.
Notably, Woodring pointed to an 8% upward revision in iPhone build expectations for September, driven largely by increased demand for the iPhone 16 and iPhone Pro Max models, said the report.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley’s forecast for December iPhone shipments stands at 78 million units, and Woodring sees potential for upward revisions once the iPhone 17 is unveiled next month, according to the report. He also mentioned that Apple hasn’t increased service prices in two years, highlighting pricing power that could aid margins amid macro uncertainty.
Despite Apple stock declining over 7% in 2025, the analyst emphasized that institutional investors remain underexposed to the stock, especially compared to other major tech peers.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the stock shifted to ‘bearish’ from ‘bullish’ territory the previous day. Message volume also fell to ‘low’ from ‘normal’ levels in 24 hours.
Apple stock has lost over 7% in 2025 and has gained over 2% in the last 12 months.
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