Wolfe Research compared MoonLake’s setback to Acelyrin’s HS trial failure, noting that Acelyrin’s stock never rebounded despite later progress in other programs.
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics shares crashed nearly 90% to record its worst session ever on Monday, as analysts downgraded the stock after the company announced late-stage trial results of its lead drug, sonelokimab, for the treatment of moderate-to-severe hidradenitis suppurativa (HS).
By the end of the session, the stock had dropped to $6.25, marking its lowest levels in over three years, before gaining approximately 4.7% in after-hours trading.
BTIG downgraded MoonLake to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ and removed the stock from its list of top picks for the second half of the year, saying sonelokimab failed to show differentiation in the Phase 3 VELA-1 and VELA-2 trials. The analyst noted that the placebo-adjusted HiSCR75 results were “well into our worst case scenario” and did not demonstrate a clear efficacy advantage over Bimzelx.
Jefferies analyst Clara Dong also downgraded the stock to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ and reduced the price target to $8 from $65, citing a smaller commercial opportunity, a lower likelihood of approval despite the drug’s potential path forward, and lesser M&A value.
Wolfe Research double-downgraded MoonLake to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Outperform’ with a steep price target cut to $2 from $76, saying that even if sonelokimab eventually finds a path forward in HS, realizing stock value “will take too long and will be too tough.”
The brokerage firm called the outcome a “surprising MoonLake fiasco,” comparing it to Acelyrin’s collapse after its own HS trial failure, noting that Acelyrin’s stock never rebounded despite later-stage programs in PsA and TED.
Leerink Partners highlighted Oruka Therapeutics as a likely beneficiary, noting that its drug, ORKA-002, with a mechanism similar to Bimzelx, could gain traction following MoonLake’s results.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for MoonLake was ‘extremely bullish’ amid a 4,650% surge in 24-hour message volume.
One user expressed confidence in MoonLake’s leadership and long-term outlook, stating that the company has a strong management team and a promising future, with potential for eventual FDA approval.
Another user noted that the trial results, while not ideal, still showed meaningful efficacy. They suggested that the sharp decline in the stock was driven more by fear and short-seller activity than by fundamentals, and added that they had taken a position in the stock following the selloff.
MoonLake’s stock has declined 88.5% so far in 2025.
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