With a spring in its step following back-to-back victories in three major Assembly polls, the NDA is likely to put up a dominant show and win 324 seats if the Lok Sabha elections are held today, according to the . On the other hand, the Congress-led opposition alliance, which won 234 seats in 2024, giving the NDA a rude shock, is projected to be down to 208 if the polls are held today.
The India Today-Cvoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll was conducted between July 1 and August 14, 2025, surveying 54,788 individuals across all Lok Sabha segments. An additional 1,52,038 interviews from CVoter’s regular tracker data were also analysed. Thus, the opinion of a total of 2,06,826 respondents was considered for this MOTN report.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP, riding on the charisma of PM Modi, received a reality check when it won only 240 out of 543 seats, which was 32 short of the 272 seats needed for a simple majority to form a government on its own.
However, along with its NDA partners, the overall tally of 293 allowed Modi to form a third government – a feat matching Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi. The INDIA bloc gave the NDA, which boasted of crossing 400 seats, a run for its money, securing 234 seats.
Since then, the electoral fortunes of the opposition bloc have hit a nadir, losing the Assembly polls in key states of Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi.
The impact of the dramatic turnaround ushered in by the BJP is reflected in the latest Mood of the Nation survey.
If seen party-wise, the survey predicts that if a general election was held now, the BJP would secure 260 seats but still fall short of getting a simple majority of its own. This is a sharp fall from the 281 seats that the MOTN survey predicted in its February edition.
It has coincided with the NDA tally seeing a dip from the numbers projected by the MOTN survey in February – from 343 seats to 324.
For the Congress, the MOTN survey predicts 97 seats – a minimal difference from the 99 it won in the 2024 polls. However, if compared to the February MOTN projection of 78 seats, it marks a gradual shift for the party that has gone hammer and tongs against the BJP over its “vote chori” claim.
The NDA will also see a rise in its vote share to 46.7% if elections were held today. It got 44% of the votes in 2024. For the INDIA bloc, the survey predicts a 40.9% vote share.