Amidst the increasing tension between Iran and America, Trump is in favor of a swift and decisive attack on Iran, but the Pentagon is not able to guarantee victory. Iran’s strong air defense and missile power can make any American attack extremely risky.
Iran-US Tension: Amidst the Iran-America tension, Donald Trump has clearly told his National Security Team that if America attacks Iran, it should be swift, limited and decisive. Meaning, Trump is not in favor of any war that would drag on for months or years like Russia-Ukraine. Overall, Trump has told his advisors that any military action should be such that it shakes the Iranian government, and not becomes a protracted conflict. However, now the question arises whether it will be as easy for America to attack Iran as it was to attack Venezuela?
Pentagon and Intelligence’s concerns: victory not guaranteed
Even though Trump has been publicly supporting the anti-government protesters in Iran, he has been saying that you people go to war, capture the institutions, help is coming. But the reality is that America’s defense and intelligence agencies have still not been able to assure that the American attack will topple Iran’s leadership, or it will avert a major war in the entire region. Due to this uncertainty, the White House is now considering options for limited military action.
Shadow of Venezuela operation, but circumstances are different
Repeated comparisons have been made to the US operation that ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro this month. But according to experts, Iran is not Venezuela. In fact, Iran’s military strength, regional influence and internal conditions can make any “victory” extremely difficult and America knows this very well.
Why is Iran not as easy as Venezuela?
In the operation in Venezuela, months of intelligence preparation, tremendous air power and the failure of Venezuelan air defense gave America success in half an hour. But the situation in Iran is completely different from Venezuela. Among these, Iran’s strong air defense network system is the most special. In the last one year, Iran has strengthened its defense system more than ever. According to reports, Iran now has a layered and mobile air defense network of Russian S-300 and S-400 systems, China’s HQ-9B missiles, indigenous Bavar-373 platform. Range of HQ-9B: About 300 km and speed is Mach 4+.
Why is attacking Iran risky for America?
Iran has greatly reduced its dependence on foreign support by increasing domestic production, whereas this was Venezuela’s biggest weakness. Therefore, a Venezuela-like attack on Iran would mean the loss of American aircraft, the risk of mistaken attacks on civilian targets, and rapidly increasing tensions in the region.
US military limitations in the Middle East
Even if Trump approves air or missile strikes, America faces a big challenge. Currently, there is no American aircraft carrier in the Middle East. The USS Abraham Lincoln has been deployed, but will take about a week to arrive. Apart from this, for any attack, America will have to depend on the airbases of Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, UAE and Saudi Arabia and all these countries are in the range of Iranian missiles.
Missile attack and threat of regional war
Iran still has about 2,000 ballistic missiles, many of which are hidden and deployed in the mountains. It is believed that a major attack could put huge pressure on the defense systems of America and Israel. This could pose a serious threat to military bases, ships and civilian infrastructure.
Iran claims-America’s soft stance?
According to Dawn report, Iran’s Ambassador to Pakistan Reza Amiri Moghaddam said that Trump has assured Tehran that America has no intention of attacking Iran. He has appealed for restraint. According to the ambassador, Iran is on high alert and the airspace has been temporarily closed. He is ready to respond to any attack.
Conclusion: “Help” in Iran is not easy
Overall, Trump’s suggested “help” in Iran may be more difficult and dangerous than it seems.