The retirement of the MiG-21 has trimmed the Indian Air Force’s fighter squadron strength from 31 to 29, its lowest since the 1960s, raising questions about India’s air power in the event of a simultaneous conflict with Islamabad and Beijing, security experts said on Saturday.
Pakistan’s fighter squadron strength is 25 and China’s, 65.
Worse, the IAF’s fighter squadrons are set to further reduce to 25 – equal to Pakistan’s – in a decade, given that the majority of the existing fighter jets are to be phased out by 2035.
These fighters – Mirages, Jaguars and other MiG variants – were all inducted in phases during the 1980s and are now operating on an extended life cycle.
“It’s scary to think that India and Pakistan are almost on a par when it comes to fighter jets, considering we face a collusive threat from Beijing and Islamabad and are expected to be ready to fight a two-front war with two nuclear-armed neighbours,” a former lieutenant general told The Telegraph.
The IAF has an authorised strength of 42 fighter squadrons, each accounting for 16 to 20 aircraft. An internal assessment following Operation Sindoor has indicated that the IAF might need to increase the authorised number of squadrons to meet future challenges.
The air force, the veteran said, has for years been facing the challenge of depleting fighter squadrons, but nothing has been done about it.
So far, the IAF has been banking heavily on India’s indigenous light combat aircraft (LCA) programme, launched in 1983 specifically to replace the MiG-21s. The programme has, however, witnessed repeated setbacks.
“The MiG-21s were to be phased out more than a decade ago, first by the indigenous Tejas Mk1 and then by the more advanced Mk1A and Mk2 variants,” a former wing commander said.
“Such is the sorry state of affairs that the IAF has still not received any replacements.”
In July this year, the IAF had expressed misgivings about the current pace of the Tejas Mk1A programme, saying the delay in the induction of new fighter planes could affect the force’s combat effectiveness.
It had flagged its concern to aircraft maker Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), calling for a timely execution of the ₹48,000-crore contract for 83 jets, ordered in February 2021. The first of these aircraft was to be delivered in March 2024, none has been delivered yet.
Of the 40 Tejas Mk1 jets earlier ordered in 2006 and 2010, two remain to be delivered.
HAL is also developing the more advanced Tejas Mk2 jets as well as advanced medium combat aircraft (AMCA). But the AMCA project – India’s ambitious bid to develop fifth-generation fighters – is still in its development phase, with even a prototype several years away,sources said.
On Thursday, the defence ministry signed another ₹62,370-crore contract with HAL for 97 more Tejas jets and associated equipment for the air force. Delivery is to start in 2027-28 and be completed in another six years.
HAL plans to produce 16 Tejas fighters a year from next year, provided engine deliveries from the US defence major, GE Aerospace, are on schedule.
India has bought 36 Rafale fighter aircraft from France – the last of them delivered in December 2022 – and has now ordered 26 Rafale Marine aircraft for its navy.
Defence ministry sources said the IAF was pushing for the acquisition of another 114 fighter jets, with at least 18 being delivered off the shelf, with Made in India parts, by the next fiscal year.
The sources said Rafale-maker Dassault Aviation was the frontrunner for the deal.
“But the proposal is still at a nascent stage,” a former major general said.
“The more pressing issue is that even when we have 42 squadrons, we will be far below the combined numbers of two of our regional adversaries,” he said, alluding to China and Pakistan.
In July last year, Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh – then an Air Marshal – had said that “atmanirbharta (self-reliance) cannot be at the cost of the nation’s defence”.
He had expressed full support for the drive towards self-reliance in defence but flagged the deficiencies in domestic manufacturing. “Atmanirbhar Bharat should not just be a buzzword,” he had said.
Veterans argue that in the absence of a robust indigenous manufacturing capability, and with critical components imported and assembled, India cannot become self-reliant in defence.
They say the Centre needs to build indigenous capability and develop new technologies to boost domestic defence manufacturing.