As Samvat 2082 approaches, the equity markets are riding high on optimism, strong earnings and robust domestic growth. In an interaction with Business Today, market expert Ravi Singh shares his views on the market outlook, key sectors to watch post-Diwali, portfolio strategy amid the midcap frenzy and his top stock picks for the year ahead.
Here are the excerpts from the interview:
Q) Do you expect the ongoing rally to sustain into Samvat 2082 or is the market entering a consolidation phase?
Markets have had a great run lately, and some cooling off now won’t hurt. A short pause or sideways move is healthy after such a strong stretch. Global cues like oil prices and US rates could cause small swings, but India’s setup still looks solid. Growth is steady, earnings are holding up and liquidity is strong. I don’t see a major correction coming — just a breather before the next push. In short, consolidation, not exhaustion.
Q) How do you see the balance between global headwinds and India’s domestic growth story shaping investor sentiment this festive season?
Yes, global winds are a bit rough — high yields, weak China, and inflation worries. But India’s story is different. Our economy is still growing faster, consumption is picking up, and corporate results have been solid. Even if the world slows, India’s domestic engine keeps things steady. Investors here seem more focused on local demand and earnings than foreign noise. So, this festive season, sentiment should stay upbeat, led by strong local confidence.
Q) Which sectors are likely to lead the next leg of the rally post-Diwali — consumption plays, financials, or manufacturing-linked themes?
After Diwali, leadership might shift a bit. Consumption stocks could stay firm, but I think the bigger push comes from manufacturing, capital goods and defence. Government spending is high, and private capex is finally picking up. Financials will support the move with healthy credit growth. Together, these areas form the backbone of India’s growth story for 2025. So the next leg could be more about building India than buying India.
Q) Mid- and small-caps have seen sharp moves this year; should investors stay put or rebalance portfolios towards large-caps for safety?
Mid- and small-caps have run ahead of themselves this year. Many great stories there, but prices are rich. It’s a good time to take a bit off the table and move part of the money into large-caps. Blue chips in banking, IT and industrials look attractive now. They offer steadier returns if volatility rises. I’d keep a balanced mix — roughly two-thirds in large-caps, one-third in quality mid-caps — to ride the next phase safely.
Q) If you had to pick three stocks for a one-year horizon that could deliver 25-30 per cent returns by next Diwali, which themes would they represent and why?
If I had to pick three, I’d go with these themes:
Infrastructure: L&T — strong execution, record order book, and government push.
Banking: ICICI Bank — clean book, solid loan growth, and steady profits.
Auto: Maruti Suzuki — new launches and rural recovery should lift sales.
All three sit in sweet spots of growth, policy support and demand revival. With steady markets, 25-30 per cent returns look possible by next Diwali.