Manchester City are set to face Manchester United at Old Trafford for their third encounter this season. This derby is crucial as it takes place in the penultimate match week of the Women’s Super League.
With Arsenal unexpectedly losing 5-2 to Aston Villa, Chelsea secured their sixth consecutive WSL title against United. Crystal Palace has already been relegated, leaving only the European spots to be determined.
Arsenal currently hold second place with 45 points and two matches left. United are close behind with 43 points, while City sit fourth with 39 points. A win on Sunday is essential for City. United need just one point to secure a Champions League spot, but they face tough matches against City and Arsenal. Despite this, Opta’s supercomputer predicts a 78.7% chance for United to finish in the top three, while City’s chances are at 21.2%.
United have shown remarkable defensive strength this season, conceding only three goals in their ten WSL home games and keeping seven clean sheets. Their last home game saw them lose 6-0 to Chelsea at Old Trafford. They boast the best defensive record in the league, having conceded just ten goals, three fewer than Chelsea.
City have struggled defensively, conceding 24 goals and keeping seven clean sheets. United have overperformed defensively with an expected goals against (xGA) of 19.6, while City faced an xGA of 23.2 from 203 shots compared to United’s 194 shots faced.
Despite injuries affecting key players, City have scored in their last twelve WSL games since a goalless match against Chelsea on November 16. They rank third in scoring with 42 goals from an expected goals (xG) of 40.58 and have taken the third-most shots (333) and shots on target (131).
United have scored the fourth-most goals (36 from 34.7 xG), taking the fourth-most shots (274) with 99 on target. City’s attack remains potent despite challenges, but they must improve defensively to secure a win against United.
Lauren Hemp’s Milestone
Lauren Hemp has had a challenging season due to injuries but recently assisted Jess Park for a crucial goal against Leicester City, keeping City’s Champions League hopes alive with a 1-0 win. Despite limited playtime, Hemp has six assists this season and holds the best minutes per assist record in WSL history.
If she starts on Sunday, it will mark her 100th league start for City. Before her injury break, Hemp became the youngest player to score 50 WSL goals at age 24 years and 60 days during a match against West Ham.
The Derby Outlook
The Opta supercomputer slightly favours United with a 41.7% chance of winning this derby as they aim for their first-ever league double over City. City’s chances stand at 31.6%, while there’s a 26.7% likelihood of a draw.
With European positions still undecided, City must strive for victory at Old Trafford to keep their hopes alive heading into the final game week.