India’s six-week long national election is nearing its final phase, with voting set to conclude on Saturday. As the nation awaits the results, which are scheduled to be announced on June 4, financial markets are keenly watching for signs of the potential outcomes and their implications.
Pollsters and political analysts have been divided over the likely results, citing lower voter turnout and widespread voter apathy as significant risks to the incumbent government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP, along with its allies, secured a decisive victory in the 2019 election, winning 352 out of 543 seats in India’s lower house of parliament, with the BJP alone capturing 303 seats.
This year, exit polls are prohibited until the voting process concludes, but early April opinion polls suggested a likely sweep for the BJP. Meanwhile, the shadow betting market, often monitored by traders for indications, predicts the BJP will secure close to 300 seats, mirroring their 2019 performance.
As the 2024 election verdict approaches, fund managers, analysts, and economists are contemplating various scenarios and their potential impacts on financial markets. Here’s a detailed look at their expectations:
Scenario 1: BJP Strengthens Its Position
Should the BJP secure a stronger majority than in 2019, equity markets are expected to respond with significant enthusiasm. Rajesh Bhatia, chief investment officer at ITI Mutual Fund, anticipates that a robust BJP victory would signal continued economic growth through policies favouring infrastructure investment and manufacturing sector expansion.
Abhishek Goenka, founder of IFA Global, a forex consultancy and asset management firm, predicts that benchmark indices like the S&P Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 could see a 4-5% rally in this scenario. Additionally, the Rupee is expected to appreciate, reaching around 82.80 against the Dollar, a notable improvement from its Thursday close of 83.32. Bond yields might also see a dip, falling to between 6.90% and 6.92% from the current near 7% level, according to VRC Reddy, treasury head at Karur Vysya Bank.
James Thom, senior investment director of Asian equities at abrdn, based in Singapore, notes that Modi’s return is perceived positively by markets due to the political stability and policy continuity it represents.
Scenario 2: BJP Holds on to Power but Wins Fewer Seats
If the BJP and its allies win fewer seats than in 2019 but still secure the majority required to form a government, markets might experience short-term volatility but are likely to stabilize quickly. Gaurav Dua, head of capital market strategy at Sharekhan, a brokerage firm, believes the market has already factored in a potential reduction in the BJP’s margin of victory.
Umeshkumar Mehta, chief investment officer at Samco Asset Management, echoes this sentiment, suggesting that a seat count below 300 would not drastically alter market trajectories. Similarly, Vijay Sharma, senior executive vice president at PNB Gilts, forecasts minimal impact on the Rupee and bond yields in this scenario.
Scenario 3: Opposition-Led Coalition Government
A more dramatic market reaction is anticipated if the BJP fails to secure a majority, resulting in a coalition government led by the opposition Congress party. Such an outcome could trigger a significant sell-off in financial markets until the new government’s policies become clearer.
Mittul Kalawadia, senior fund manager for equity at ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, emphasizes that the market’s preference for continuity means any sudden change could lead to a negative response. “Whether in the long run things are positive or negative, we will know later, but in the short-term, any change which impacts policy level continuity will be a big negative,” he says.
Goenka from IFA Global anticipates that in the event of a BJP loss, benchmark stock indices could plummet by up to 10%. Sharekhan’s Dua predicts an even steeper decline, potentially ranging from 15-20%. In this scenario, the Reserve Bank of India might need to intervene to support the Rupee, while foreign outflows from bonds could lead to an immediate increase of 10-15 basis points in yields, according to Anindya Banerjee, head of foreign exchange research at Kotak Securities.
As India awaits the final phase of voting and the subsequent election results, the financial markets remain poised for significant movements based on the political landscape that will emerge. Investors and market participants are bracing for outcomes ranging from continuity and stability to potential upheaval and uncertainty, reflecting the high stakes of one of the world’s largest democratic exercises.
