The 2025-26 Premier League season kicks off on August 15th with Liverpool as reigning champions. Arsenal, Manchester City, and Chelsea are strong contenders, while Manchester United and Tottenham face an uphill battle.
The countdown is almost over as the 2025-26 Premier League season kicks off on August 15, promising another year of drama, twists, and high-stakes football. And it all begins at Anfield, where reigning champions Liverpool host Bournemouth in the curtain-raiser.
Arne Slot’s side will be eager to maintain their grip on the title, but Arsenal, Manchester City and newly crowned FIFA Club World Cup winners Chelsea will be circling, ready to pounce. Further down the pecking order, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur are desperate to bounce back after humiliating campaigns-both recorded their worst-ever Premier League finishes last season, in 15th and 17th respectively.
Spurs can take some comfort from last season’s Europa League triumph over United, which secured them Champions League football under new boss Thomas Frank. Aston Villa and Newcastle United will also have their eyes on the top four, though both have endured rocky summers in the transfer market.
Meanwhile, promoted sides Burnley, Leeds United, and Sunderland will fight hard to avoid joining the growing list of newly promoted teams sent packing after just one season in the top flight.
Liverpool Still the Team to Beat
It’s been an emotional rollercoaster for Liverpool fans-from last season’s title joy to the tragic loss of Diogo Jota. But if history is any guide, the six-time European champions thrive on adversity.
Slot wasted no time reshaping the squad in his image after becoming the first Dutchman to win the Premier League and just the fifth coach to claim the title in their debut season. Liverpool have already spent close to £300 million this summer-and with Alexander Isak reportedly in their sights, the spending might not stop.
Arrivals like Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike, Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez, and goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili have added depth and quality, filling the gaps left by Trent Alexander-Arnold, Luis Diaz, and Jarell Quansah’s departures.
According to Opta’s supercomputer, Liverpool are favourites to retain their crown, boasting a 28.5% chance of finishing top again. Arsenal, however, pose the biggest threat with a 24.3% probability of ending their 21-year title drought, while Manchester City-eager to bounce back from their first trophyless season under Pep Guardiola-hold an 18.8% chance.
This season also marks Arsenal’s historic 100th consecutive year in the top flight, the longest active streak in English football.
Bleak Outlook for Manchester United and Spurs
If United and Tottenham were hoping for sunny forecasts, the supercomputer offers little comfort.
United have just a 0.6% chance of winning the league and only a 6.7% shot at the top four. Ruben Amorim has overseen a full pre-season and brought in Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo, but last season’s scoring struggles remain a concern-they found the net just 44 times, the lowest outside the relegation zone, and lost a record 18 league matches. Their most likely finish in the simulations? 12th or 13th.
Despite Tottenham’s Europa League glory, Ange Postecoglou was shown the door, replaced by Thomas Frank. Spurs’ biggest signing so far is Mohammed Kudus, and while Morgan Gibbs-White has proved elusive, a move for Yoane Wissa could be in the works. With club legend Son Heung-min departing after a decade, the side faces significant change.
Defence is an even bigger concern-Spurs shipped 65 league goals in 2024-25, the fourth-worst record in the division. The model predicts a most common finish of 15th (7.6% likelihood) and only a 5.8% chance of making the top four.
Race for the Top Four
Chelsea’s Club World Cup win has renewed optimism at Stamford Bridge. While their title chances stand at a modest 8.4%, they have a healthy 40.3% probability of making the top four, with fourth place (10.9% likelihood) as their most frequent outcome.
Villa (30.5%) and Newcastle (29.9%) are seen as Chelsea’s closest challengers. Villa, who painfully missed out on Europe’s top competition last term, are projected to finish fifth (9.6%). Newcastle’s summer has been frustrating-missing out on James Trafford, Hugo Ekitike, and Benjamin Sesko-while uncertainty looms over Alexander Isak’s future. Still, the Magpies’ most likely finish is sixth (9%).
Crystal Palace, Brighton, Bournemouth, Brentford, and Nottingham Forest round out the supercomputer’s expected top half.
Trouble Brewing for the New Boys?
Recent history has been brutal for promoted clubs-all six of the last two seasons have gone straight back down. In fact, on just three occasions in Premier League history have all three promoted teams been relegated, and two of those have happened in the past two campaigns.
Sunderland, back in the big time after eight years, face a steep climb. Opta gives them a 34.1% chance of finishing bottom and a whopping 66.4% probability of going down. Manager Regis Le Bris has responded with over £110m in signings-from young talents like Habib Diarra to proven leaders like Granit Xhaka-but survival will be a huge test.
Championship winners Leeds also have serious relegation worries, given a predicted 48% chance of the drop and a most likely finish of 19th.
Burnley, whose record-breaking defence conceded just 16 goals in the Championship last season, look the most robust of the promoted trio despite losing key keeper James Trafford to Man City. Still, their relegation likelihood stands at 45.9%, with a 16.6% chance of finishing bottom.
The relegation battle could rope in Wolves (26.4%), West Ham (21.9%), and potentially even Fulham-though they’ve been mid-table under Marco Silva, the model sees them struggling more this year, albeit with just a 14.7% drop probability.
Bottom line: Liverpool may be favourites, but Arsenal are close behind, and City can’t be ruled out. The fight for the top four looks fierce, while at the other end, survival will be a monumental task for the newcomers.
If you’d like, I can also create a short, punchy bullet-point summary of the supercomputer’s predictions so it’s easier to digest. Would you like me to prepare that?