New Delhi: Liverpool are most likely to win the 2025-26 Premier League title, as per a research group. The Reds won the 2024-25 title in Arne Slot’s first season in charge, finishing as the runaway winners, 10 points clear of second-placed Arsenal.
The Premier League champions built on their success with a whopping £450m spending on transfers to strengthen their squad. And all these factors have been taken into account by the CIES (International Centre for Sports Studies) Football Observatory, which has now claimed Liverpool have the highest probability of defending their crown, with a 28.9% chance.
Arsenal are placed second behind the Reds with an 18.8% chance of winning the title, while Chelsea, with 16.2% probability, are ranked third, ahead of 10-time champions Manchester City on 14.4%.
Forest, Newcastle, and Villa all ahead of Man United
Manchester United, the most successful team in Premier League history, have been given a 2.6% chance of winning their first title since the 2012-13 season.
Nottingham Forest (7.9%), Newcastle United (5.8%) and Aston Villa (3.2 %) are all above United in the win probability list.
In the Scottish top division, Celtic are 63.3% likely to defend their league title, while rivals Rangers have a 28.9% probability. In La Liga, Real Madrid (40.6%) trump Barcelona (29.6%) in the win probability list.
In the German Bundesliga, Bayern Munich are clear favourites on 61.4%, ahead of Borussia Dortmund (8.8%).
In the Italian Serie A, the top three sides are Inter Milan (25.6%), Juventus (18.2%) and Napoli (17.4%). Paris St-Germain are hot favourites with 73.0% probability to win a fifth straight Ligue 1 title in France.
The CIES Football Observatory uses a statistical model for predicting the title winners in 29 leagues
The model uses factors like sporting, economic and demographic variables, and also considers passes into the final third and transfer fees.
Serbia’s Red Star Belgrade have the highest likelihood of winning the league title with a 76.2% chance of all the 29 leagues.