Film trade analyst Komal Nahta shares his predictions for this week’s three notable releases—Rajinikanth’s Jailer 2, Yami Gautam Dhar’s Nayyi Navelli and Rajkummar Rao’s Prahaar—discussing their box office prospects, the challenges faced by women-centric films and the importance of word of mouth.
There are three notable releases this week—Jailer 2, Nayi Naveli and Prahar. How do you see these films performing at the box office?
See, the music of Jailer 2 is superb and has become very popular, even in Hindi. The concept of Nayyi Navelli is appealing to audiences, while the trailer of Prahaar has been fantastic and has received a lot of appreciation.
So, there are three different reasons why audiences might want to watch these films. For one, it is the music; for another, it is the novelty of the concept; and for the third, it is the trailer.
What kind of opening do you expect from Jailer 2?
That is very difficult to predict. It is a South Indian film, and you never really know.
What about Nayyi Navelli and Prahaar? Can they get a good opening?
Both these films will have to depend on word of mouth. They are not the kind of films that generally get big openings.
Nayyi Naveliy is a heroine-oriented film, and heroine-oriented films generally don’t get a strong start at the box office.
Prahaar, on the other hand, is what you would call meaningful cinema or different cinema. It doesn’t have the typical trappings of a commercial film. So, if the film is good, the word of mouth could be tremendous.
You mentioned that women-centric films generally don’t get strong openings. Why hasn’t that changed over the years? Do you think it ever will?
I don’t know about tomorrow, but it hasn’t changed so far. As an audience, we generally ask who the hero is, and then we decide whether to watch the film.
You may call it a patriarchal society or whatever you like, but the fact remains that we tend to go by the hero rather than the heroine.
That is not to say that heroine-oriented films haven’t done very well. Some have performed extremely well, but they have never had great initial value at the box office.
So, even if a film doesn’t open well, strong content can help its collections grow?
Absolutely. If the content is good, the numbers will grow. See, the genre of a film is important only for the opening day or the opening show. After that, content takes over.
Finally, how much money is riding on this weekend’s releases?
For the two Hindi films, probably around ₹50–60 crore, perhaps ₹60–65 crore.
As for Jailer 2, it is primarily a Tamil film, so much more is riding on it in Tamil Nadu than here. The Hindi market is just an additional territory, almost like a bonus.