Austrian analyst Tom Cooper says the Iran conflict is a ‘war of attrition’ with no quick resolution expected. He argues the regime is not near collapse, has popular support, and a ceasefire will only lead to a future war due to a cycle of retaliation.
Austrian aerial warfare analyst and historian Tom Cooper has said that the ongoing conflict involving Iran has already entered a phase of prolonged confrontation, warning that expectations of a quick resolution were misplaced. “We are already in the war of attrition. It is a little bit absurd, but this is what happens when one is following or initiating aggressive wars without seriously considering military assessments and intelligence assessments,” Cooper said while responding to a question on the evolving situation in an interview with ANI.
Regime Resilience and Misplaced Expectations of Collapse
He noted that initial expectations of a swift outcome have not materialised. “This war was supposed to… end after three or four days with the downfall of the regime. And the regime is nowhere near collapse. It is still there, it is still present on the streets,” he said.
Highlighting the resilience of the Iranian establishment, Cooper added, “It can still exercise violence against its own population… the regime remains brutal, and it is around. Nobody is going to get rid of it just like that.”
He further pointed out that a section of the population continues to support the regime, complicating prospects of rapid change. “At least a significant if not large part of the population remains supportive of this regime,” he said, adding that even in the event of major developments, a civil war scenario remains unlikely.
Ceasefire Unlikely to End Long-Term Conflict
On the possibility of de-escalation, Cooper stressed that even a ceasefire would not end the conflict in the long term. “Even if it stops now, it’s not going to be over in a matter of days… Iranians are vengeful, and they are going to seek to extract some kind of revenge,” he said.
He warned of a cycle of retaliation that could prolong instability. “Even if there is a ceasefire tomorrow, we can already start our stopwatches until the next war thereafter,” Cooper remarked, suggesting that tensions would likely resurface.
Summing up, he said, “So again, long war, not a short war.”
Background: Recent West Asia Escalation
His remarks follow the significant escalation in West Asia that erupted after the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, which resulted in the death of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior military figures. This prompted retaliatory drone and missile strikes by Iran against Israel and US assets in the Gulf nations. (ANI)
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by Asianet Newsable English staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)