Crude volatility, currency moves, and refining margins will be key as it readies to report June-quarter results.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) traded under mild pressure as it gears up to announce June quarter (Q1 FY26) earnings on Thursday. While technicals flash a weak outlook for the medium term, SEBI-registered analyst Deepak Pal said that early signs of recovery are emerging.
All Eyes On Q1 Earnings
In macro factors at play, the crude oil price volatility and INR-USD exchange rate directly impact profitability. Additionally, the government’s fuel price control policy is a major earnings driver.
Refining margins & marketing margins will be key factors to track. Pal highlighted that if crude stabilizes below $80, IOC margins could improve.
Technical Outlook
On its daily charts, IOC stock has been under short-term pressure but is attempting a minor recovery after a recent correction. Its 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is acting as a resistance while 50-day & 100-day EMAs are above the price, indicating that the trend is still weak in the medium-term.
In other indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.5 suggests a neutral zone, showing potential for mild upside if momentum sustains. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bearish crossover, but the histogram is showing signs of flattening, which means that the selling pressure is reducing. And the parabolic SAR indicated early signs of bullish reversal.
Pal identified support at ₹140 – ₹138, with resistance between ₹146 – ₹150. The bias remains neutral to mildly bullish if the price sustains above ₹145.
Fundamental View
India’s largest downstream oil refining & marketing company has moderate debt on the books, but it is well-managed due to steady cash flows. The company has a stable retail network and the most extensive fuel distribution in India. Its strong dividend track record augurs well for the stock. Pal noted that the company is expanding into petrochemicals, EV charging stations & green hydrogen, which is a long-term positive.
What Should Investors Do?
In the short term (1–3 months), if the stock sustains above ₹145, it could target ₹150–₹155. And for medium to long-term traders, Pal said that given the strong dividend yield & strategic PSU status, IOC can be a buy on dips for income and moderate growth. He cautioned on watching for crude price spikes, government-imposed price freezes, or global recession.
What Is The Retail Mood?
Data on Stocktwits shows that retail sentiment turned ‘bearish’ on this counter mid-July and has stayed in that territory.
IOC shares have risen a marginal 4% for the year so far,
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