Just last month, Musk reiterated that a $20 trillion valuation for Tesla “is possible,” but only with “extreme execution.”
Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk has backed a social media post suggesting that a $150,000 investment in his electric-vehicle company today could grow into $1 million.
“I think this is probably correct,” he replied, in a public nod to the company’s long-term potential at a time when Tesla is grappling with regulatory scrutiny, softening demand, and questions around executive pay.
Musk’s comment follows Tesla’s board approving a new stock award worth approximately $29 million for him, signalling management’s intent to keep him focused on the EV giant.
Just last month, Musk reiterated that a $20 trillion valuation for Tesla “is possible,” but only with “extreme execution.” He has consistently argued that Tesla is no longer merely a carmaker, but an AI company poised to unlock value in autonomous driving and humanoid robots. Retail investors — who reportedly hold more than 40% of Tesla’s freely traded shares — appear to back that vision, even in the face of repeated earnings or sales misses.
Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?
A market cap of $20 trillion for Tesla implies an eye-watering 1,905% rise, or roughly 20-fold jump, from the last close. An investment of $150,000 at current levels would, in fact, grow into $3 million if Tesla manages to achieve that growth.
Tesla’s stock has declined more than 20% so far in 2025, making it the worst performer among the “Magnificent Seven” tech group. The benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, meanwhile, have gained over 7% this year. Investing in indices that track those benchmarks — the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) — would have been a better bet so far this year.
According to Koyfin, Tesla trades at a staggering 184 times its trailing price-to-earnings multiple (compared with just 8.4 times for General Motors) and 159.3 times its forward earnings per share. Out of 47 analysts covering the stock on Wall Street, 20 recommend ‘hold’ while 18 rate it ‘buy’ or ‘strong buy’ and nine have a ‘sell’ or ‘strong sell’ rating.
Tesla Bulls Brush Worries Aside
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, in a recent client note, wrote that “Musk remains Tesla’s big asset and this comp issue has been a constant concern of shareholders once the Delaware [pay package] soap opera began.” Ives has consistently championed Tesla as a massive winner in the AI race, predicting that Tesla’s market cap would reach $2 trillion by next year if its robotaxi rollout goes as planned.
In June, Ark Investment Management CEO Cathie Wood, another long-time Tesla bull, called the company “the largest AI project on earth,” citing internal research projecting that its autonomous taxi networks could generate $8–$10 trillion in revenue over the next 5–10 years. Tesla is also the top holding in Wood’s flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK), the largest fund under the Ark umbrella.
Road Filled With Speedbumps?
The new award comes as Tesla continues to face operational and regulatory challenges, including sliding sales in key European markets and of cars made in China.
However, Tesla stated last month that its Shanghai Gigafactory remains its primary export hub and reported record deliveries in several Southeast Asian markets, including South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines.
Tesla is also preparing to launch a new six-seater Model Y Long Range variant in China with a longer wheelbase.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla was last at ‘neutral’ amid ‘low’ message volume.
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