INTC stock has surged sharply in recent months, driven by a range of catalysts, setting a high bar for the Q4 report.
- Analysts expect Intel’s quarterly revenue to decline by more than 6%, after rising in the preceding two quarters.
- INTC stock hit a four-year high, following a nearly 12% rally on Wednesday.
- The majority of analysts recommend holding the stock, given the stock’s sharp gains and pending a clearer picture.
Intel Corp.’s fourth-quarter and year-end results on Thursday will serve as a test of the legacy chip-maker’s turnaround strategy, which has pushed its stock sharply higher in recent months.
Major Catalysts Powering Stock
Over the past year, Intel has undergone massive reorganization and downsizing under its new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan. The changes were complemented by the U.S. government picking up a 10% stake in the company in August, surging demand for AI data center chips, including those made by Intel, and a recent partnership with Nvidia.
More recently, Intel unveiled its latest PC processors, the Core Ultra Series 3, at CES 2026. They are built using Intel’s 18A process – roughly equivalent to a 2-nanometer-class node – which the company called the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing process ever developed and produced in the U.S.
Given that Intel’s stock has priced in those developments – the stock rose 84% in 2025, and is up 47% this year, even before January draws to a close – investors have a high bar going into Intel’s report, which would come after the markets close. Most analysts currently recommend a ‘Hold’ rating, and their average price target is, in fact, below INTC’s price.
Retail’s Upbeat — And Deeply Invested
However, retail investors are rather upbeat. Stocktwits sentiment for INTC shifted to ‘extremely bullish’ as of early Thursday, from ‘bullish’ the previous day, amid community exuberance. Message volume has soared by over 370% in the past month, while INTC has added nearly 16% more followers over the past year, indicating strong investor interest in the legacy chip giant’s reset.
“$INTC my life will be defined by one stock,” said one user.
“CONGRATULATIONS to all those who have been buying since the 20s, very well deserved celebration as it nears ATH again!” posted another, although INTC is abuot 13% away from its all-time high hit back in 2021.
Analysts’ View
Intel has received a string of positive commentary from brokerages this month alone, including rating upgrades from HSBC and KeyBank.
The company made progress by “right-sizing” its business through cost cuts, balance-sheet improvements, and a strategic partnership with Nvidia, but near-term upside may be limited by margin and manufacturing risks, RBC Capital Markets said in its investor note last week.
The business is “back on track,” with the U.S. government’s equity stake potentially helping attract customers to Intel’s foundry business, RBC said.
UBS said the company faces an “upward bias” heading into its Q4 report, thanks to strong PC chips and server demand, along with improving sentiment on its foundry business and its upcoming 14A manufacturing process.
In December, Nvidia acquired a $5 billion stake in Intel as part of to co-develop multiple lines of data center and PC technologies. For the data center market, Intel plans to design custom x86 CPUs optimized for Nvidia’s AI infrastructure – a move that has fueled particular optimism among investors.
Q4 Expectations
Analysts expect Intel’s Q4 revenue to decline 6.1% to $13.4 billion – the steepest drop in 2025 – and adjusted profit to decline 36% to $0.08 per share, according to Koyfin. For Q1, they expect Intel to forecast a year-over-year revenue decline of about 1%.
Analysts are in a wait-and-watch mode, pending clues from the upcoming report. Thirty-three of the 46 analysts covering the stock recommend ‘Hold,’ eight recommend ‘Buy’ or higher, and five recommend ‘Sell’ or lower, according to Koyfin. Their average price target of $42.46 is lower than Intel’s $54.25 closing price on Wednesday.
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