India’s ties with China warm as US relations falter under tariffs. Explained: the risks, gains, and strategy.
India’s foreign policy is entering a delicate stage, caught between Beijing’s outreach and Washington’s economic retaliation. As ties with the United States cool under high tariffs, China is extending a hand with diplomatic overtures and symbolic gestures, seeking to draw New Delhi closer.
Donald Trump’s administration has weakened momentum in US-India ties, once heralded as a counterweight to China’s assertive Indo-Pacific moves. A 50 percent tariff slapped on Indian goods has stalled trade discussions and shaken India’s role in the QUAD. In parallel, Beijing, also reeling from Trump’s tariff policies, is presenting itself as a willing partner while hinting at the possibility of a China-Russia-India triangle.
Beijing’s Red Carpet Diplomacy
Chinese President Xi Jinping is hosting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin. While Modi has already met Xi in Kazan, this forum offers another opportunity to accelerate normalization of ties. A bilateral meeting with China is expected, though New Delhi remains cautious about fully entering any trilateral arrangement with Moscow and Beijing.
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The pause has seen small but symbolic moves. Beijing allowed Hindu pilgrimages into Tibet to resume, a gesture warmly received by Modi’s BJP-led government. India responded by easing visas for Chinese nationals. Resumption of direct flights, stronger people-to-people exchanges, and fresh rounds of border negotiations are also on the table.
Beneath this charm offensive, however, lies Beijing’s strategy: weaken India’s alignment with the U.S. and create dependence on Chinese markets. Chinese envoys have repeatedly criticized Trump’s tariff policy while urging India to expand trade. Beijing has even promised wider access for Indian goods, though the expectation is clear, India must temper its concerns about cheap Chinese imports flooding its market.
Strategic Signals Behind Concessions
Beijing’s approach blends goodwill with calculated pressure. In June, it abruptly halted supplies of rare earth metals and fertilizers, commodities critical to India’s technology and agriculture sectors. Although the suspension was lifted following Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s August visit to New Delhi, the episode demonstrated China’s ability to create crises and then defuse them, reinforcing the perception of diplomatic progress while deepening India’s reliance.
At the same time, Beijing has not hesitated to assert itself on sensitive issues. An Indian minister’s comments on the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation prompted a sharp rebuke, leading to a quick retraction. China also reacted critically when India’s reiteration of the One China policy was deemed insufficient. Wang’s subsequent stop in Islamabad also highlighted Beijing’s unwillingness to decouple its Pakistan policy from broader regional engagements, a move that irked Indian policymakers.
India’s Balancing Acts Continue
New Delhi, however, is not abandoning other partnerships. Ahead of the SCO summit, Modi travelled to Japan, signaling India’s continued interest in regional alternatives. His itinerary included high-profile technological engagements and a symbolic bullet train ride, highlighting enduring ties with Tokyo.
India also continues its engagement with Washington, though under strain. Senior officials recently held a 2+2 intercessional dialogue virtually, discussing shared security concerns and regional priorities.
Yet challenges persist. India’s import of Russian oil has already triggered a fresh 25 percent tariff from the Trump administration, drawing little international support for New Delhi’s position. With traditional allies lukewarm and economic pressure mounting, India finds itself increasingly leaning on China and Russia for pragmatic reasons.
The strategic choices India makes in the coming months will be critical. Accepting China’s overtures risks getting muddled in Beijing’s geopolitical agenda, while waiting for Washington to reconsider could leave New Delhi isolated. For a country that prizes its policy of strategic autonomy, the balancing act is becoming harder to sustain.
Whether Modi doubles down on building alternative alliances or succumbs to China’s carefully crafted engagement will determine India’s future standing in the shifting global order.