Kolkata: In early August 2025, US president Donald Trump slapped retaliatory tariff of 25% against import on Indian goods. That rate was quickly doubled to 50% in order to compel India not to buy crude oil from Russia, which Trump interpreted as a way of funding Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine. After creating a fog of adverse economic fallouts both on the export front and the stock markets as well as in the general economy, followed by hectic negotiations, Trump announced on his social media handle that the tariff will be slashed from 50% to 18% — a reduction of 74%.
Apart form the absolute gains, there is also a significant competitive gain too. And that it the tariffs on import of goods from India is lower than that on Asian neighbours. The tariff on imports from China is 37% right now. Those from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Taiwan, Indonesia and Vietnam are all higher than that of India. Following the announcement of the reduction in tariff, MNC brokerage firm Jefferies has tweaked the model India portfolio. Let’s have a closer look.
Sector winners signaled by the deal
Among the sector winners Jefferies has highlighted stocks in auto ancillaries, solar manufacturers, chemicals, textiles and Adani Group companies as key beneficiaries of lower US tariff barriers.
Jefferies has highlighted stocks such as Sona BLW, Bharat Forge in the auto sector. These stocks have higher exposure to the US market.
In chemicals, Navin Fluorine, PI Industries and SRF have been marked as the probable beneficiaries.
Waaree Energies, Premier Energies and Emmvee are the stocks in the renewable energy sector.
Welspun Living in the textile sector has also been highlighted as a major probable beneficiary.
The New York-based brokerage also mentioned Adani Enterprises, Adani Power and Adani Energy Solutions could significantly benefit from the India-US deal.
Model portfolio shifts
The India model portfolio is overweight on financials, telecom, consumer discretionary, materials, power and real estate sectors. Jefferies has effected tweaks to its India model portfolio. The objective is to capturing the upside that is emerging from the bilateral deal. It has trimmed INfosys and added weights in metals such as Hindustan Zinc and JSW Steel. In fact, metals now enjoy an overweight position following the recent softness if prices.
Hindustan Zinc can serve the purpose of playing silver and zinc. Jefferies thinks cost advantages are a driver for this stock. JSW Steel is expected to post robust improvement q-o-q with Indian steel prices rising following safeguard duties. Jefferies thinks 34% q‑o‑q surge in Q4 EBIDTA is possible.
Reports said Jefferies has also removed Godrej Consumer Products from its model portfolio. Eternal has taken its place. The brokerage thinks Eternal can post robust growth and margin improvement across quick commerce and food delivery verticals. It has also observed that this stock is trading 25% below its peak.
Possible downside
While expressing its bullishness about the above-mentioned sectors, Jefferies also mentioned risks arising out of cheaper imports. The brokerage has said that a rise in imports from the US could generate stress for domestic producers. Details of what the US is about to get as market access and concessions are yet to emerge.
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