Economy of India.
Harvard University Professor Jason Furman, while sharing a data, has described India as the fastest growing economy in the world. According to him, after the Corona epidemic, India has left behind economic superpowers like America, China and Russia. Jason shared a graph on Twitter, which shows India’s economic performance compared to America, Europe, Russia and China.
Furman wrote in his post how the world’s major economies are performing now compared to pre-Covid trends. He posted a graph that compares GDP as a percentage to pre-pandemic trends for the US, euro zone, China, Russia and India from the third quarter of 2019 to 2025.
According to this graph, India’s GDP rises and climbs by +5% by mid-2025 and is seen emerging as the only major economy to grow in the long term.
Recession and uneven recovery due to pandemic
According to Furman, all five economies had gone into negative territory in 2020. In this, the sharpest decline was recorded in the Euro area by 25%, in China by 10%, in America by 5%, in India by 5%, in Russia by almost 8%. But since then there has been a lot of difference in his recovery.
The US bounced back quickly with the support of aggressive fiscal interventions like the American Rescue Plan. Furman previously credited these measures with helping take the US to about +2% above trend by 2025. Yet, even this performance pales in comparison to India’s extraordinary progress.
India moving forward
From its 2020 low, India climbed above pre-Covid trendlines by 2022, reaching +3% in 2024, and is projected to reach +5% by Q3 2025. Furman stressed that this was not a one-time surge, but the result of structural strengthening.
Pointing to digital infrastructure, investment reforms and a stable macroeconomic environment, he said India’s policies boosted domestic consumption and investment amid global challenges. He compared it with the challenges faced by other major economies.
- China’s recovery remains slow due to prolonged zero-Covid measures and real estate crisis, leaving its growth rate hovering at -5% through 2025.
- Russia is stuck around -8%, affected by sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine.
- The euro zone, which is still around -3%, continues to suffer from inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Even in the US, Furman flagged sustainability risks: 92% of growth in the first half of 2025 will come from AI-driven data center investments, raising concerns about expansion.
Global agencies expressed confidence in India
Major international rating agencies have also echoed Furman’s optimism. ICRA expects India’s GDP growth to remain strong at 7% in Q2FY26, up from 7.8% in Q1FY26, and GVA is estimated at 7.1%. The agency said the slowdown in services and agriculture would be offset by industrial growth reaching its highest level in five quarters at 7.8%.
Moody’s Ratings has also reiterated India’s leading position in the Asia-Pacific region (except Greater China). It projects GDP growth at 7% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026, supported by strong domestic demand despite global uncertainty. In the Asia-Pacific region, the agency expects growth to hover around 3.4% in 2026, with India continuing to be the clear outperformer.
Economists are citing India’s progress as a model for other developing economies. IMF estimates show that strong digital infrastructure, growing manufacturing supported by production-linked incentives, a youthful workforce and stable service exports have helped sustain 7-8% annual growth.