The 10-year tenure of the 7th Pay Commission is going to end on December 31, 2025, after which all the attention has now focused on the 8th Central Pay Commission. The two most talked about issues related to the 8th Pay Commission are: when will its recommendations be implemented and how much salary increase can employees get based on the new fitment factor.
Now, after the Term of Reference i.e. ToR has been decided and the committee headed by Justice Ranjana Desai has started the work, the discussion has intensified among the central government employees and pensioners regarding salary hike, revised basic pay and arrears. Although the exact execution date has yet to be officially confirmed, most estimates point to the billeted execution possibly occurring in early 2028 rather than January 2026.
However, this delay could mean huge arrears, especially if the Pay Commission recommendations are implemented with retrospective effect. So, how much arrears can an employee actually get? Let us understand it in simple language.
What is the current status of 8th Pay Commission?
The tenure of the Seventh Pay Commission ends on December 31, 2025. To ensure continuity, the government has notified the Eighth Pay Commission and approved its ToR. The commission has been given 18 months to submit its report.
As per past trends, after the report is submitted, the government usually takes 3-6 months to examine, approve and issue notification of the recommendations. This means the 8th Pay Commission may be executed in late 2027 or early 2028.
Although no official date has been announced yet, this deadline has been mentioned in the reports of many analysts and major financial publications.
What is the expected salary increase?
Market analysts including Ambit Capital estimate that under the 8th Pay Commission, the salaries and pensions of central government employees may increase by about 30-34 percent.
A major reason for this potential increase is the fitment factor – this is the multiplier that is used to revise the basic pay. According to reports, the fitment factor can range from 1.83 to 2.46, and many estimates are centered around 2.28.
Like previous pay commissions, Dearness Allowance (DA) is expected to be included in the basic pay before the new structure is implemented.
What can be the change in the salary of an employee with minimum basic salary?
Suppose, the current basic salary of a Level 1 employee is Rs 18,000.
Currently, after adding DA and allowances, the gross salary of this employee is approximately Rs 35,000 per month.
If the basic salary increases by 34 per cent as a result of the Eighth Pay Commission, the revised gross salary will be approximately Rs 46,900 per month.
This means an increase of approximately Rs 11,900 per month.
If it is implemented as early as 2028, how much will be the arrears?
If the Eighth Pay Commission is implemented in January 2028 with retrospective effect from January 2026, employees will get arrears of 24 months.
Monthly increase: Rs 11,900
Outstanding period: 24 months
Total arrears outstanding: Rs 2.85 lakh
Thus, an employee receiving minimum basic salary may get arrears of around Rs 2.8-3 lakh just due to salary change.
The area amount will naturally be much higher for employees with higher salary levels.
Importance of arrears along with salary increase
Historically, dues have been one of the biggest financial benefits for government employees during the implementation of pay commissions. Although delays in implementation often cause frustration, backdated payments partially compensate for the wait. In the case of the Seventh Pay Commission, despite the Commission being constituted much earlier, employees received a large amount of arrears when the recommendations were implemented in 2016.
What else will be included in the review of the Eighth Pay Commission?
The TOR of the Eighth Pay Commission is not limited to only basil salary revival. It will also review the following:
– Allowances like HRA and transport allowance
– Pension and dearness relief structure
– Gratuity and retirement benefits
– Pay equality and incentive structure
All these changes will be finalized only after the Commission submits its report and gets the approval of the government.