s performance could be a mixed bag with continued expansion in loans and deposits, but with a significant climbdown in its profitability. The lender’s profit after tax (PAT) could fall between 52% and 60% on the year-on-year basis and may come in the range of Rs 288 crore and Rs 347 crore according to the estimates given by three brokerages.
The midcap private lender could report a YoY increase of 12-13% in its in the January-March quarter between Rs 4,998 crore and Rs 5,064 crore.
its profitability could remain under pressure due to rising and asset quality challenges. The street will closely watch management commentary on microfinance exposures and recovery outlook in H2FY26.
IDFC First Bank will announce its earnings on Saturday, April 26, 2025. Here’s what brokerages said:
Nuvama
Nuvama expects the bank to post a sharp decline in profitability, projecting a PAT of Rs 310 crore, falling 57% YoY and 8.2% sequentially. This fall is largely attributed to elevated provisioning costs and higher slippages.
The NII is expected to grow by 12.4% YoY and 2.5% QoQ to Rs 5,020 crore while Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP) is estimated to rise 14.9% YoY and 8.7% QoQ to Rs 1,910 crore.
The Net Interest Margins (NIM) is estimated to remain flat QoQ at 6.04%, highlighting steady earnings from the lending portfolio.
The brokerage expects significant uptick in its provisions at Rs 1,520 crore, which is a likely increase of 110% YoY and 13.4% QoQ. Slippages are also seen increasing 84.7% YoY to Rs 2,490 crore.
Loan book growth remains healthy at 20.3% YoY and 4.7% QoQ, with total loans estimated at Rs 2.38 lakh crore. Deposits are expected to rise 26% YoY to Rs 2.53 lakh crore.
Nuvama believes that most of the microfinance-related asset quality issues will be largely behind by the end of H1FY26, paving the way for a stronger recovery in the second half of the fiscal year.
Motilal Oswal
MOFSL has a more cautious stance on the bank, forecasting PAT at Rs 288 crore, which could go down 60.3% YoY and 15.2% QoQ.
NII is projected at Rs 4,998 crore, marking a growth of 11.8% YoY and 1.9% QoQ, while operating profit is expected to rise modestly by 5.3% YoY but decline marginally by 0.4% QoQ to Rs 1,752 crore. The sequential drop in profitability is indicative of increased stress on the cost side, possibly from provisions and opex pressures.
Given the pressure on earnings and asset quality, MOFSL has retained a ‘Neutral’ rating on IDFC First Bank.
Yes Securities
Yes Securities anticipates a PAT of Rs 347 crore, which is a 52.2% drop YoY but a modest 2.1% QoQ rise, suggesting some sequential stability despite YoY headwinds.
NII is pegged at Rs 5,064 crore, reflecting a double-digit YoY growth of 13.3% and 3.3% QoQ, while PPoP is estimated at Rs 1,809 crore, which could go up 8.7% YoY and 2.8% QoQ.