Brent crude surged past $71 as US-Iran tensions rattled markets. With nuclear talks collapsing and military deployments rising, analysts warn disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil toward $100, reshaping global energy, economic stability.
Oil prices surged this week as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran rattled global markets. Brent crude crossed $71.41 a barrel on February 19, 2026, while WTI settled near $66.27. Analysts say the sharp climb is driven less by supply fundamentals and more by escalating war risks following the collapse of nuclear talks in Geneva.
The Trump administration has deployed two carrier strike groups and dozens of combat aircraft to the Middle East. Non‑essential personnel are being moved out of the region, signaling that military planners are preparing for possible strikes. According to defense sources, a U.S. attack on Iran could come as early as this weekend, pending a final presidential decision.
Vice President JD Vance confirmed that Iran failed to meet U.S. red lines on uranium enrichment and missile restrictions. President Trump has reserved the right to use military force, and markets are reacting to the heightened risk.
Why Hormuz matters
At the center of the oil price debate is the Strait of Hormuz, a 21‑mile‑wide waterway through which 13 million barrels of crude pass daily — nearly one‑third of global seaborne oil. Iran controls the northern coastline and has previously threatened to close the strait. Current military drills and joint naval exercises with Russia add to the tension.
Analysts warn that even partial disruption of shipping lanes could push Brent past $100 within days. A full closure, though unlikely, would trigger a shockwave not seen since the 1973 oil embargo. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve could be tapped, but its 350 million barrels pale against global consumption of 103 million barrels per day.
Geneva talks collapse
The Geneva nuclear talks were expected to ease tensions but ended in failure. U.S. negotiators demanded concessions on enrichment and missile programs, but Iran refused. Vance’s blunt statement afterward signaled the breakdown, and markets priced in the risk immediately.
The administration has given Tehran until the end of February to present concessions. That leaves a narrow window of about 10 days. Traders are now effectively betting on whether diplomacy revives or collapses entirely.
Market impact and scenarios
WTI crude rose 2.60% to $66.74, while Brent gained 2.33% to $70.82. Natural gas climbed to $3.04, reflecting broader energy concerns. Gold remained strong at $5,014, showing steady safe‑haven buying. Silver dipped slightly but stayed elevated compared to recent averages.
Just weeks ago, the EIA projected Brent averaging $58 for 2026, citing a surplus of nearly 3 million barrels per day. That forecast has been upended by a war premium of more than $13 per barrel injected in days.
Three scenarios dominate the forward curve:
If talks resume with partial concessions, oil retreats toward $65–$67.
If talks collapse without military action, prices hold between $72–$80 through Q1.
If strikes occur and Iran disrupts Hormuz, $100 becomes a floor, not a ceiling.
Domestic stakes
A sustained oil price above $85 carries direct consequences for the U.S. economy. Gasoline prices typically lag crude by two to four weeks. At $100 Brent, the national average could exceed $4 per gallon — a politically sensitive threshold.
This creates tension for the administration. Military pressure on Iran advances foreign policy goals, but soaring energy costs risk undermining economic credibility. Treasury markets already reflect uncertainty, with energy equities outperforming the broader S&P 500 by more than 4% this week.