Holiday Shopping Could Soar To A Record $1 Trillion This Year, With Online Spending Blasting To New Highs

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E-commerce spending between Nov. 1 and Nov. 23 rose 7.5% to $79.7 billion, according to Adobe Analytics.

  • Adobe Analysts says consumers spent $79.7 billion on e-commerce between Nov. 1 and Nov. 23.
  • Spends were over $3 billion on 22 days.
  • The trend sets the stage for strong spending through the pre-holiday stretch from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, and into the core shopping window around Christmas and New Year’s.

The holiday shopping season is off to a solid start, according to the latest projections from Adobe Analytics, which expects consumers to shop for a record $1 trillion in the period from early November through the New Year’s.

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Adobe Analytics e-commerce data reveals that U.S. consumers spent $79.7 billion between Nov. 1 and Nov. 23, up 7.5% year over year. They spent over $3 billion a day on 22 days in this period, compared to 20 days in the year-ago period.

Consumers are expected to spend $253.4 billion between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 through e-commerce, up 5.3% year over year. | Source: Adobe Analytics

US Consumer Resiliant

The trend underscores a resilient U.S. consumer. Over the last few quarters, shopping activity has been mixed due to external pressures, including inflation, job losses, and uncertainty stemming from Donald Trump’s tariffs. In their later quarterly reports, major retailers such as Walmart and Target, as well as restaurant chains like Chipotle Mexican Grill, flagged weak spending, particularly among low- and middle-income consumers.

Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday Stretch Key Indicator

Next up is the pre-holiday stretch, starting with Thanksgiving on Thursday and continuing through Cyber Monday, marked by high promotions from retailers and serving as a key indicator of shopping demand around Christmas and New Year.

Adobe Analysts forecasts $43.6 billion in online spend in the five-day period, up 6.3% year over year and representing 17.2% of the overall holiday season. Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the season, expected to draw $14.2 billion in online sales, up from $13.3 billion last year.

More Insights

Adobe’s report threw in a few more notable insights: About 52% of online spending between Nov. 1 and Nov. 23 occurred on smartphones, while buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services grew by 12%.

Gadgets like Apple iPhone 17, Google Pixel 10, Nintendo Switch 2, Dyson Airwrap, and Labubu Dolls and cosmetic sets were the top-selling items this month.

Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), which tracks retail companies and is a key gauge of the sector, recorded its best single-day gain since April on Tuesday (4.6%). 

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