Stock is consolidating near key support levels ahead of Q1 results, with the analyst advising caution in the short term but maintaining a bullish long-term outlook.
Indian defense stocks are on a roll on Monday after the government announced record defense production of ₹1,50,590 crore for FY24-25. Exports also increased to a record ₹23,622 crore in FY 2024-25, up 12.04% from ₹21,083 crore in the previous fiscal.
Within the defense sector, SEBI-registered analyst Deepak Pal believes that strong order inflows and a robust balance sheet fundamentally back Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL). The company is expected to report its June quarter (Q1 FY26) earnings on Tuesday.
Pal expects healthy revenue growth in the coming quarters due to strong execution in its pipeline. He added that the upcoming results on August 12 could be a near-term trigger for price volatility. But its technical setup remains positive above ₹4,340 with scope for fresh momentum on a breakout.
Weekly Technical Outlook
HAL stock has been in a corrective phase after a strong uptrend earlier this year. Recent candles show selling pressure, but price action is now hovering near key support zones.
Pal noted support around ₹4,450–4,420, which coincides with the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and is close to a confluence of moving averages. Below this, ₹4,120 (200-week EMA) will be a strong long-term support.
On the upside, he sees immediate resistance at ₹4,700–4,750, followed by ₹5,100 from the previous swing high.
Among other technical indicators, the parabolic SAR suggests a short-term bearish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in a bearish crossover, showing loss of momentum, but the histogram is flattening, which could mean a possible slowdown in selling pressure.
Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 47.7 is neutral but tilting bearish, indicating that the stock is not yet in oversold territory.
Overall, on the charts, Pal highlighted that the price is in a pullback within a larger bullish structure. If HAL stock sustains above the ₹4,420 zone, it could trigger a rebound, while a breakdown below ₹4,120 may extend weakness.
What Should Investors Do?
In the short term, Pal is cautious to mildly bearish, and expects the stock to see consolidation or further dip toward ₹4,120 if support fails. In the medium-to-long term, positive bias is intact. Any dip toward ₹4,100–4,200 could be an accumulation opportunity if broader market sentiment supports.
According to Pal, any result-triggered dip can be considered a good buying opportunity for the medium term. On the weekly chart, the stock is taking strong support near the 50 EMA and ₹4,340. If this level holds, positions can be taken with a stop-loss at ₹4,300, with a target price of ₹4,650–₹4,700, and further towards ₹4,850–₹5,100.
What Is The Retail Mood?
Data on Stocktwits shows that retail sentiment has been ‘bullish’ on this counter since the end of July.
HAL shares have risen 7% year-to-date (YTD)
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