Analysts expect Nifty to trade between 24,500–24,800 this week, supported by positive technical signals, though GST reforms and geopolitical risks could add volatility.
The Nifty index ended above 24,600 in a holiday-shortened trade last week. The GIFT Nifty suggests a gap-up start for Dalal Street on Monday, driven by the announcement of GST reforms by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a simplified 2-slab system by Diwali, which is expected to boost household disposable income and consumption power.
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump called for a “peace agreement” to end the Russia–Ukraine war. While no ceasefire or deal was reached, the push signals momentum toward easing global tensions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will visit Washington on Monday, along with other EU leaders, for further discussions.
SEBI-registered analyst FrontWave Research believes that even a partial de-escalation in the Ukraine-Russian war could soften oil prices, easing pressure on the rupee and inflation. They added that the proposed GST cuts will widen the fiscal deficit and hence they expect yields to rise again, which, if unchecked, could pressure Nifty’s valuation multiples even as consumption demand improves.
Meanwhile, India gears up for the additional 25% trade tariffs that will be effective from August 27. The US appears to be hardening its stance as the next round of trade talks scheduled for August 25 has been reportedly postponed.
Monday Trade Setup
Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services noted that on the weekly timeframe, the Nifty index formed a green candle, reclaiming the 20 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and formed a “Tweezers Bottom,” which suggested that the market could generate some upward momentum once it activates by breaking above the candle high in the 24,700 to 24,740 range.
On the daily timeframe, the market has crossed the 100-day EMA and ended above it, which is considered a positive sign and could act as a booster to further resistance levels of 24,740 (20 EMA ) & 24,800 (50 EMA). Sharma said that the higher timeframes indicated a positive sentiment and that these levels would be tested within the current week for further confirmation.
On the intraday front, immediate support is seen at 24,600, which, if breached, could lead to 24,550, followed by the 24,500 to 24,450 range. However, given the positive signals from the higher time frames, the likelihood remains high that these support levels will hold, according to Sharma.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 24,670-24,680, followed by 24,720-24,740 (20-day EMA levels) ahead. If the market holds momentum above these levels, Sharma expects the Nifty index to test the 50-day EMA and crucial support of 24,800. Overall, the market is likely to trade between 24,500-24,800.
He added that while there is an expectation that PM Modi’s upcoming GST reform announcements on Monday will drive a significantly positive market reaction, traders must be cautious as it will need to test critical technical levels to confirm any sustainable upside.
And Ashish Kyal highlighted that the opening hour trade on Monday will be crucial for the Nifty index. It can test Gann levels of 24,728 again, with immediate support seen at 24,540.
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