Other crypto analysts also broadly agree on higher prices, though timing expectations differ.
- Grayscale said Bitcoin’s traditional ‘four year cycle’ is likely ending.
- The firm expects Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
- Macro demand for scarce assets and regulatory clarity underpin its outlook.
Grayscale said Monday that Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-observed ‘four year cycle’ has likely come to an end, predicting that the cryptocurrency could reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
In a research note, the asset manager said it views the crypto asset class as being in a sustained bull market, even if the traditional four-year rhythm tied to Bitcoin’s halving cycle is breaking down. Grayscale expects rising valuations across all six of its portfolio’s crypto sectors in 2026.
Bitcoin’s price was trading at around $86,100 on Monday night, down nearly 4% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the apex cryptocurrency fell to ‘extremely bearish’ from ‘bearish’ territory over the past day, while chatter remained at ‘low’ levels.
The Case For A Bull-Cycle Bitcoin Market
Grayscale outlined two core drivers behind its outlook. First, it expects continued macro demand for alternative stores of value. It said that Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH), the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, are increasingly being viewed as scarce digital commodities and alternative monetary assets.
The firm argued that fiat currencies face growing structural risks tied to elevated public-sector debt and the potential long-term inflationary consequences where scarce assets such as gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum could play a stabilizing role in investment portfolios.
Ethereum’s price dipped more than 5% on Monday night amid broader weakness in the cryptocurrency market. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the leading altcoin fell to ‘bearish’ from ‘neutral’ territory over the past day, accompanied by chatter at ‘normal’ levels.
Second, Grayscale pointed to improving regulatory clarity as a catalyst for institutional adoption of public blockchain technology. Until recently, the U.S. government had ongoing investigations or lawsuits involving major crypto firms including Coinbase (COIN), Ripple (XRP), Binance (BNB), Robinhood (HOOD), Consensys, Uniswap (UNI), and OpenSea (SEA).
Even now, the firm noted, exchanges and intermediaries still operate without fully defined spot-market rules, though the regulatory backdrop has begun to stabilize.
Analysts Diverge On Timing But Share Long-Term Optimism
Grayscale’s outlook aligns with a broader reassessment among market strategists. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick forecasted Bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of 2025 after cutting an earlier $200,000 target. He sees Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026 and maintains a long-term $500,000 target by 2030.
ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood projects a wide 2030 range for Bitcoin, with a $300,000 bear target, $710,000 base target, and as high as $1.2 million in a bull case scenario.
Retail traders, however, remain more divided on timing. A recent Stocktwits poll showed that 33% of respondents expect Bitcoin’s next all-time high in March. Another 28% see it happening as soon as December, while 27% believe it could take until June.
Read also: Bitcoin Retail Traders Split On Timing Of Next All-Time High While Sentiment Turns ‘Extremely Bearish’
For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<