Gold prices are projected to reach between $4,200 and $5,000 per ounce over the next one to two years. This surge is primarily fueled by consistent purchases from central banks and strong investment demand from Asian markets, which are increasingly influencing the global gold market.
Traditionally, gold prices have been sensitive to US interest rate movements. However, a recent report from NDB Wealth Management indicates a significant shift. Even with higher US interest rates, persistent inflation, and a stronger dollar, gold has continued its upward trajectory. This suggests that the precious metal is no longer solely dictated by the US Federal Reserve’s policies.
Central banks globally are actively diversifying their reserves, reducing their reliance on the US dollar. In the second quarter of 2026 alone, central banks acquired 289 tonnes of gold. Similarly, Asian gold funds saw record net inflows of nearly 70 tonnes in the first half of the year. In contrast, North American gold funds experienced outflows, reflecting the impact of US economic conditions on Western investment.
Limited supply further supports these price forecasts. Global mine production is expected to increase by only 2.4% to 3,907 tonnes in 2026. High mining costs and long development timelines restrict the industry’s ability to quickly ramp up production in response to rising prices. The report’s base-case scenario, with a 50% probability, anticipates gold trading in the $4,200-$5,000 range. While a lasting peace in the Gulf or easing inflation could temper prices, concerns over US government finances and the Federal Reserve’s independence might push them even higher.