Gold prices could remain elevated over the next one to two years, with NDB Wealth Management projecting a trading range of $4,200 to $5,000 per ounce in its base case. The outlook is given based on sustained central bank purchases, rising demand from Asian investors and constraints on global mine supply. The report suggests that gold’s price movements are becoming less dependent on traditional market drivers, particularly changes in US interest rates. Instead, official-sector buying and demand for the precious metal as a reserve asset are playing an increasingly important role.
has continued to attract buyers even as several factors that typically weigh on its price remain in place. Higher US interest rates, persistent inflation and a stronger dollar have historically posed challenges for the non-yielding asset.
However, NDB Wealth Management pointed to a shift in the relationship between gold and monetary policy.
“Gold has stopped trading off the Fed,” the report said.
The observation reflects the growing influence of central banks and Asian investors, whose purchases have helped support prices despite elevated valuations. According to the report, these buyers appear to be providing an important source of demand beyond the traditional drivers of the gold market.
Central Banks And Asian Investors Drive Demand
Central bank purchases remained substantial in the second quarter of 2026, reaching 289 tonnes, according to the report. Meanwhile, Asian gold funds attracted net inflows of nearly 70 tonnes during the first half of the year, marking their strongest first-half performance on record.
Investment trends in North America moved in the opposite direction. Gold funds in the region recorded outflows of approximately 61 tonnes over the same period, as higher US real yields and a stronger dollar weighed on investor appetite.
NDB Wealth said central banks are primarily accumulating gold to diversify their reserves and reduce their exposure to the US dollar, rather than attempting to profit from short-term price changes.
The report expects this buying activity to remain robust. The World Gold Council projects central bank purchases of around 850 tonnes in 2026, broadly in line with the 863 tonnes acquired in 2025.
Limited Mine Supply Could Support Gold Prices
Supply constraints are another factor underpinning the outlook for bullion. Global mine production is expected to increase by just 2.4 per cent to 3,907 tonnes in 2026.
Higher mining expenses and the lengthy development period required to bring new projects into operation could restrict the industry’s ability to respond quickly to stronger demand.
This limited supply response may help sustain prices if central bank purchases and investor interest remain firm. Even if prices rise further, increased production is unlikely to provide an immediate counterbalance to demand.
The report’s outlook therefore reflects a combination of persistent buying interest and the challenges involved in expanding gold production.
NDB Wealth’s Gold Price Forecast: $4,200-$5,000
NDB Wealth Management has assigned a 50 per cent probability to its base-case scenario, under which gold trades between $4,200 and $5,000 per ounce over the next 12 to 24 months.
However, the report also identifies developments that could alter this trajectory.
A lasting peace in the Gulf, easing inflation and a pause in US interest rate hikes could put downward pressure on prices. Conversely, concerns surrounding US government finances and the independence of the Federal Reserve could provide additional support to gold.
These competing factors mean that the projected range is an outlook rather than a guaranteed price target.
What Could Change The Gold Price Outlook?
The sustainability of central bank purchases and Asian investor demand will remain crucial to the outlook, according to NDB Wealth.
If these sources of demand continue to absorb substantial quantities of gold, the market could remain supported even when conventional indicators, such as interest rates and the dollar, point towards weaker prices.
Geopolitical developments will also be important. Changes in the Gulf situation could influence demand for safe-haven assets, while concerns about US fiscal credibility and the Federal Reserve’s independence could affect investor confidence.