Gold had shown tremendous growth in the beginning of 2026, but now its momentum seems to be slowing down. After reaching a record high of $5,602 at the beginning of the year, gold has fallen to around $4,495, i.e. a decline of about 20%, which is commonly called a bear market.
trend of decline after boom
This rise in gold started from October 2022. From around $1,500 at that time, it jumped 275% by January 2026. But now the correction has started and there is pressure in the market.
what does history say
History shows that a sharp fall in gold after a big rise is not a new thing. Mark Twain’s famous line is that history does not repeat itself, but it does resemble us.
- 1974-76: Gold rose 353%, then fell 43%
- 1980s: 541% surge followed by 52% decline
- 2011-2015: 42% decline after long rally
How much can gold fall in 2026?
If the historical trend is repeated, gold may fall by 50% from its peak. In such a situation, the prices may come around $2,800-$3,000. However, many experts consider the level of $3,600 important.
Why is gold under pressure now?
Oil prices have increased after the Iran war, which strengthened the dollar and increased inflation. In such a situation, interest rates may remain high. Since gold does not pay any interest, its demand decreases in times of high rates and strong dollar.
Hope remains in the long term
Although there is a decline in the short term, experts believe that gold may become stronger again in the long run. Geopolitical tensions and purchases by central banks can support this.
advice for investors
Investing in gold for short term can be risky. It is better to keep it only 10-15% of the portfolio and invest with a long term perspective.