Fiscal deficit
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget on 1 February 2026 at 11 am. Amidst the ongoing changes in the global economy, investors are keeping an eye on what will be special in the budget and on which areas the government will focus. Trade wars, tariff policies, supply chain disruptions and increasing geopolitical tensions have shaken the old idea of globalization. Experts say that for an economy like India, which on one hand is promoting domestic growth and on the other hand is strengthening its place in the global value chain, this period has brought challenges as well as opportunities.
According to Mohit Gulati, CIO and Managing Partner of ITI Growth Opportunities Fund, in the environment of changing global situation and Trump-Modi tension, Budget 2026 will have to be clear and decisive. This should be a budget that strengthens self-reliant India, with emphasis on strength, scale and better implementation. He says that this will not be a populist budget, but the focus will be on accelerating the growth of the country.
Which 5 things will be kept an eye on in this budget?
Fiscal deficit
It tells how much loan the government has to take in a year. It was 4.8% in FY25 and the target is to reduce it to 4.4% for FY26. According to the report of Motilal Oswal, it may further reduce to 4.3% of GDP in FY27.
GDP growth target
Investors will keep a special eye on the growth estimates for FY27. Real GDP growth for FY26 was estimated at 7.4%. According to Motilal Oswal, nominal GDP growth in FY27 can be considered to be around 10.1%.
Capex (Capital Expenditure)
The government is increasing expenditure on infrastructure like roads, railways, energy. There was a provision of ₹11.21 lakh crore for capex in FY26. It is estimated that total expenditure may increase to ₹52.9 trillion in FY27. Mohit Gulati says that now there is a need to bring forward private investment.
self-reliant india
According to Gulati, self-reliance should not just mean schemes, but creating real capacity on a large scale, especially in sectors like defence, semiconductor, electronics and energy. Experts believe that increasing the defense budget is a strategic need, not just expenditure.
personal income tax
Taxpayers are hopeful that there will be relief in the budget, but experts believe that this time the chances of change in tax slabs are less. Big relief has already been given in the Budget 2025, where there is no tax on income up to ₹ 12 lakh. Overall, experts are of the opinion that the government should maintain stability in policy and take such decisions, which promote both investment and consumption.