West Bengal faces a demographic upheaval as cross-border migration, rising Muslim populations, and political manoeuvring reshape communities, spark communal tensions, and drive Hindu exodus, raising questions on identity, security, and politics.
West Bengal, long celebrated for its rich culture and political history, is undergoing a profound transformation. Beneath the lush deltas and bustling towns, a demographic shift is reshaping communities, influencing politics, and stirring anxieties over identity and security. Decades of migration from Bangladesh, often across borders, have created new social dynamics, communal tensions, and political fault lines.
Migration and Its Electoral Force
As per reports, Muslims now constitute nearly 30% of West Bengal’s electorate—around 2.25 crore voters—concentrated in 102 assembly constituencies, with outright majorities in 74. Many of these voters are migrants who have allegedly secured voting rights through questionable documentation.
“Muslims of Bengal support the Trinamool Congress because the ruling party appeases them and they know their interests are protected as long as the Trinamool Congress is in power. As for the Muslims of Bangladeshi origin, they are highly vulnerable and have no option other than voting for the Trinamool Congress,” Political scientist Aveek Sen was quoted as saying in one publication.
Ahead of elections, the Trinamool Congress reportedly arranges transport, cash incentives, and accommodation for migrant workers returning from states such as Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Some of these voters act as “goonda bahini,” intimidating rivals and influencing outcomes.
The 2024 Kaliganj bypoll highlights these dynamics. TMC candidate Alifa Ahmed won 55.15% of votes in a constituency with a 58.5% Muslim electorate, defeating the BJP’s Ashish Ghosh. Meanwhile, Hindu-majority booths largely voted for the BJP, which secured nearly 73% of votes, reflecting growing anxieties over demographic shifts.
With the Election Commission’s 2025 voter roll revision—aimed at removing non-residents—TMC’s hold on up to 50 constituencies may be at risk. TMC MP Mahua Moitra has challenged the process in the Supreme Court, calling it disenfranchisement, while BJP state president Sukanta Majumdar insists: “Present address should be the criterion… We will welcome the deletion of the names of voters who live and work elsewhere.”
Exodus of Hindu Communities
Demographic shifts are not just a political phenomenon—they are reshaping communities. In Baduria, North 24 Parganas, the Hindu population has reportedly fallen from roughly 68% in the 1970s to 32% today. Kaliganj, which was 58% Hindu in 1951, reportedly fell to 41.36% by 2011, with 2025 projections below 39%.
Residents recall the upheaval. Krishnapada Mandal, a retired teacher from Sandeshkhali, says: “The Rohingyas started coming here around seven to eight years ago… They were provided shelters, food, clothes… by Trinamool leaders.”
Hiran Das, forced to leave his home in Sandeshkhali, adds: “Right from the very beginning, the Rohingyas were a menace. They used to tease Hindu women… provided blanket protection by Trinamool leaders.”
Families like Shaktipada Das from near Baduria and Bimal Chandra Das from Kaijuri have relocated multiple times due to intimidation. These movements feed broader migration trends across India, including Assam, Odisha, and other states, sometimes leading to conflicts, as in Sambalpur, Odisha, where Bangladeshi-origin migrants now constitute 9% of the population.
Communal Tensions and Violence
The demographic pressures have contributed to rising communal unrest. According to the Centre for Study of Society and Secularism, communal incidents surged 84% nationwide in 2024, with Bengal featuring prominently. Past incidents, like the 2017 Baduria unrest and 2023 Ram Navami violence in Howrah, highlight how small disputes can escalate into widespread chaos.
In 2025, protests in Murshidabad over the Waqf (Amendment) Act turned violent, with suspected Bangladeshi elements reportedly involved. Calcutta University sociologist Kallol Kanti Bhattacharya observes: “The ghastly attacks on Hindus… have scarred Hindus all over the state.”
Radical influences in some madrassas further exacerbate tensions, with clerics reportedly preaching sectarian hatred and shaping a generation predisposed to conflict.
Radical Voices and Ideological Incursions
Concerns over radicalisation are not limited to grassroots unrest. TMC minister Firhad Hakim has made statements advocating conversion and encouraging Muslim majorities in certain districts. Critics note echoes of historical pre-partition rhetoric, warning that such narratives could embolden attempts to assert dominance over communities.
“Firhad bhai speaks what many think but dare not say. It’s our shield against the BJP’s Hindutva wave,” a TMC insider was quoted as saying in one publication.
Instances of intimidation, including Rohingya enforcers imposing edicts, further fuel fears of loss of community autonomy.
Preserving Identity and Heritage
For Bengal’s Hindu population, the stakes are existential. Temples are vandalized, idols shattered, and residents face daily intimidation. In Dhulian in April 2025, over 400 Hindus were displaced to Malda, carrying the weight of cultural loss.
Demographic projections indicate that Muslims could reach 35% of the state’s population by 2030, fueled by a fertility rate of 2.4 versus Hindus’ 1.8, combined with continued migration through 963 km of unfenced border. Former Vice-President Jagdeep Dhankhar has cautioned that this “demographic engineering” endangers nationalism.
Historian Amiya Basu warns: “Bengal’s Hindus are shrinking to a minority in their cradle. If we ignore this, we’ll bequeath our children a partitioned legacy—not by maps, but by fear.”
Historical Waves of Migration
West Bengal has long been at the forefront of cross-border migration from Bangladesh. As per a 2018 study titled ‘Illegal Migrants a Reality: A Case of West Bengal’, Dr. Anirban Mandal and Sriparna Guha noted, “Illegal cross-border migration is regarded as a vital issue for India’s national security. The socio-economic conditions in Bangladesh, political instability, and attacks on minority communities are major drivers of this movement.”
India shares a 4,096 km border with Bangladesh, with West Bengal alone covering 2,217 km—the largest stretch among Indian states. The vast, riverine, and often difficult-to-monitor border has made it a natural corridor for both refugees and economic migrants. Census and demographic analyses suggest that over 15 million Bangladeshis have migrated illegally to India, most settling along West Bengal’s border districts and some moving to metropolitan areas.
The waves of migration are not new: the 1947 partition triggered an initial influx, followed by nearly 10 million refugees during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War. Policies in Bangladesh, such as restrictions on property and financial access for minority Hindus during the 1990s, further drove migration.
“Policies in Bangladesh, such as restrictions on property and financial access for minority Hindus during the 1990s, created enormous pressure on these communities to migrate for better livelihoods,” Mandal and Guha noted.
Socio-Economic Pressures and Climate Drivers
Migration has dramatically altered West Bengal’s demographic landscape, particularly in border districts. Census 2011 data highlights:
| District | Hindu Population Increase | Muslim Population Increase |
| Malda | 19 lakhs | 20 lakhs |
| Murshidabad | 23 lakhs | 47 lakhs |
| North Dinajpur | 14 lakhs | 15 lakhs |
While migrants fill labour shortages, they also introduce socio-economic challenges. Mandal and Guha highlight that illegal migration suppresses wages, strains resources, and pressures infrastructure. Urban centers, particularly Kolkata, face additional challenges as migrants seek livelihoods beyond rural districts.
Climate-induced migration adds another layer. Floods, cyclones, river and coastal erosion in Bangladesh have displaced millions.
“Environmental displacement will only exacerbate migration to India, especially in bordering districts, unless preemptive measures are taken.”
Policy Gaps and the Way Forward
As per their 2018 study, Mandal and Guha identify urgent gaps:
- Comprehensive Policy: Nationwide consultations involving governments, communities, and NGOs to frame migration policies.
- Citizenship Verification: Rigorous surveys to prevent illegal voter registration. NGOs like Bangladesh Udbastu Kalyan Parishad may assist.
- Skill Development: Focus on income diversification and skills for displaced populations.
- Bilateral Cooperation: Engage Bangladesh to curb illegal migration, particularly from vulnerable minority communities.
- Stop Vote Bank Politics: Political exploitation exacerbates tensions and must be addressed.
“Addressing illegal migration is not merely a law-and-order issue; it is central to socio-economic planning, climate adaptation, and the protection of vulnerable communities in both India and Bangladesh,” Mandal and Guha conclude.
West Bengal today stands at a crossroads. Porous borders, migration, political appeasement, radicalization, and climate-driven displacement intersect to challenge social cohesion. The coming years will determine whether the state preserves its rich, diverse heritage or witnesses communities reshaped—and identities contested—by migration and political maneuvering. The answers lie not only in policy but in the lived experiences of its people.