For the full year, S&P expects Ford to report margins of 5.7%, rising to 7.3% in 2027 and 7.8% in 2028.
- The firm expects Ford to maintain adjusted core profit margins of 7-8% for the next few years.
- The scaling of its midsize EV platform is also expected to aid margin improvement in 2028.
- Ford reported adjusted earnings of $0.49 per share for the third quarter, ahead of Wall Street estimates of $0.40, and lifted the bottom of its full-year adjusted profit guidance to $10.5–11 billion from $10–11 billion.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday revised the outlook on Ford Motor Co. (F) and its finance arm to stable from negative, while expressing confidence that the automaker can control costs and maintain solid profits, as shown in its latest quarterly results and raised full-year forecast.
The firm noted that Ford has cut costs for materials and warranty and offset higher commodity costs with improved pricing and mix, which it expects to be sustainable and help improve margins and stabilize free cash flow, when coupled with volume growth.
“The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Ford’s structural cost reductions, declining losses in electric vehicles (EV), and strong profits from pickups and SUVs will offset inflationary pressures, tariffs, and supply chain volatility,” S&P said.
For the full year, the firm expects Ford to report margins of 5.7%, rising to 7.3% in 2027 and 7.8% in 2028, thanks to supply chain issues easing as supplier Novelis resumes normal operations after fires at its New York plant last year, lower EV restructuring charges, and increasing software sales.
The firm also expects commodity prices to ease with the easing of the US-Iran war. If commodity prices continue to stay elevated, the firm believes Ford would still have options to mitigate them. The scaling of its midsize EV platform is also expected to aid margin improvement in 2028. The first vehicle based on the platform, the Fathom pickup truck, is expected to launch in 2027.
“We think Ford has invested adequately in EVs, but risk remains that it falls behind foreign competitors, notably Chinese automakers. The success of its universal EV platform and ability to drive reasonable volumes will likely determine Ford’s ability to compete effectively,” S&P said.
The firm expects Ford to maintain adjusted core profit margins of 7-8% for the next few years.
Ford Q3 Earnings And Revised Outlook
Ford reported adjusted earnings of $0.49 per share for the third quarter, ahead of Wall Street estimates of $0.40, and lifted the bottom of its full-year adjusted profit guidance to $10.5–11 billion from $10–11 billion while holding free-cash-flow expectations at $6–7 billion. Gains were driven by favorable product mix, particularly in trucks and SUVs, plus stronger results at Ford Credit.
Electric-vehicle losses for the full year 2026 are estimated at around $4 billion. Ford further expects 2027 profits to stay roughly in line with 2026 levels and continues aiming for stronger margins by 2029 through cost controls and growth beyond vehicle sales.
How Did Ford Retail Traders React?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around F stock jumped from ‘bearish’ to ‘neutral’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume increased from ‘normal’ to ‘high’ levels. According to the platform’s internal data, retail chatter around the stock has risen 340% in the past 30 days.
F stock has dropped 6% year-to-date.
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