The firm also expects merger and acquisition activity in the sector to remain elevated in 2026.
- Fitch believes companies with portfolios focused on oncology, immunology, rare diseases, vaccines and metabolic or weight‑management therapies are likely to outgrow the market.
- The firm deems policy risk, particularly regarding drug pricing, as high.
- Fitch now expects global pharma revenue growth to be around 3.2% in 2026.
Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday that it expects mid-single-digit growth in global medicines spending in 2026, supported by an aging population and broadening access to healthcare.
The global pharma sector’s operating environment will remain stable supporting a ‘neutral’ outlook, Fitch Ratings said, while adding that companies with portfolios focused on oncology, immunology, rare diseases, vaccines and metabolic or weight‑management therapies are likely to outgrow the market.
Policy Risks
Fitch, however, flagged risks including policy uncertainty testing operating profitability. Fitch deems policy risk, particularly regarding drug pricing, as high.
“In the US, the Most Favoured Nation pricing framework, potential import tariffs and evolving pharmacy benefit manager access dynamics are likely to increase pricing dispersion and cost volatility in 2026,” it said. “Issuers with diversified portfolios, domestic manufacturing options and inventory flexibility should preserve rating headroom despite policy volatility.”
Fitch now expects global pharma revenue growth to be around 3.2% in 2026, below the 5.3% expected in 2025. The base case for revenue growth is underpinned by innovation and volume increases in chronic and specialty categories, it said. Players with specialized therapeutic depth and broad modality exposure are better positioned to sustain above-market trajectories, Fitch added.
M&A Activity In 2026
The firm now sees merger and acquisition activity to remain elevated in 2026, extending the 2025 rebound in biotech dealmaking that outdid 2024 levels. It also expects a sustained rise in capital expenditure as companies regionalize manufacturing and invest in complex biologics and cell and gene platforms.
Trump’s Most Favored Pricing Deals
Last week, U.S. President Trump announced nine new agreements with pharma companies to lower prescription drug prices for Americans to levels paid in other developed nations. Overall, 14 pharma companies have now inked similar deals with the administration in return for pharma tariff reprieve and expedited drug application reviews including Amgen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Boehringer Ingelheim, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, GSK, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Eli Lilly and Sanofi.
The S&P Pharmaceuticals Select Industry Index has gained about 31% this year while the Dow Jones U.S. Pharmaceuticals Index gained over 24%.
Large-cap pharma stocks like Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, and Merck have all gained single to double digit stock growth this year while Pfizer fell 6%.
For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com<