Explained: Whenever there is talk of crude oil prices or supply in the world, everyone’s eyes are fixed on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. There are often reports that the oil crisis will deepen only if America or Israel impose sanctions on Iran, but the reality is more complicated than this. Amidst the noise of bombs and missiles, there is a threat that is being ignored and that is the strike of workers working in Iran’s oil industry. This danger is even bigger because on one hand the fear of war has reduced a little but on the other hand the internal situation of Iran is getting worse.
Today there is definitely silence on Iran’s oil wells, but this could be the sound of a big storm. If the workers there take to the streets, the worldwide oil supply could suffer a blow that would be difficult to compensate. The whole world may have to bear the brunt of this shock.
What is going on in Iran?
The government has crushed the recent protests in Iran very strictly. If reports are to be believed, the death toll could be in thousands. This repression was so terrible that it has left behind even the horrific incidents like 1988, 1999 and 2022 in the 47-year history of Iran. At present, Tehran has regained its control over big cities.
US President Donald Trump, who had earlier encouraged the protesters, now believes that the situation there is under control. On January 14, he said that “the killings have stopped in Iran.” When he was asked about military action, he avoided the issue and said that he would keep an eye on the situation. But this peace is just an illusion. The government can silence people with bullets but it cannot end the economic crisis which is the real reason for this anger.
The inflation rate in Iran has reached close to 50%. The currency ‘Rial’ there is going into the abyss and unemployment is at its peak. Unless the crisis of people’s livelihood is resolved, there will be a threat of instability in the oil fields.
Oil is the natural treasure of Iran. Photo: Pixabay
The history that still haunts Iran
Iran’s economy is completely in the clutches of a corrupt and militarized system. Supreme leader Ali Khamenei and the ‘Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ (IRGC) have control over every big company in the country. Economic reforms are not possible without major political changes. A Tel Aviv analyst believes that Iran may now enter a period of “civil disobedience”. Civil disobedience means politely, peacefully and openly disobeying unjust laws.
This is the time when history can repeat itself. The protests of 1978-79 and the strike of oil workers at that time broke the back of Iran. In mid-1978, Iran’s oil production fell by 80% within a few weeks after a worker strike. It was this injury that laid the foundation of the revolution there and brought Ayatollah Khomeini to power. This is considered to be the biggest ‘oil outage’ till date.
In view of this history, on January 10, Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah of Iran, made an appeal on social media. He has called on oil, gas and energy sector workers to launch a nationwide strike and cut the “economic pulse” of the regime.
Who has control over the oil wells?
However, there is a lot of difference between the situation of 1978 and today. Today Iran’s oil industry is completely under the control of IRGC. Not only do they own the infrastructure, but many of the people working there are their own loyalists. Apart from this, security forces are keeping a close watch on the country’s largest oil fields Khuzestan and Kohgiluyeh.
Another big reason is that today most of the employees working there are on ‘contract’. There is no job security and their financial condition is so weak that they will think twice before taking the risk of strike.
The real danger is beyond the reach of the White House
At present, there is little possibility of a major disturbance in Iran’s oil fields, but if this spark flares up, its impact will be dire. Today Iran produces about 5 million barrels of crude oil and other petroleum liquids per day. This figure is same as that of 1978.
The most important thing is that this is a threat that Donald Trump or America cannot control. The White House can prevent military attacks, as it did by advising Israel and Iran not to attack each other’s energy plants, but the US cannot control protesters on the streets of Iran or workers working on oil wells. Experts say that instead of bombs, Iran should keep an eye on the workers who hold the key to global oil supply.