Iran-Israel are showing no sign of stopping. Sometimes Trump’s statement comes regarding war, and sometimes a voice is seen coming from Iran. Now the US President has announced a reward of 10 million dollars on 10 Iranian leaders including the Supreme Leader of Iran. Which can add fuel to the fire in this war. Due to this war, the biggest impact has been seen in the prices of crude oil.
Crude oil prices have seen an increase of 50 percent in 15 days. Where the price of American crude oil has seen an increase of more than 51 percent. On the other hand, crude oil of Gulf countries has crossed 100 dollars per barrel. In India too, the price of crude oil had reached Rs 10 thousand per barrel a few days ago. But after that it came down a bit. Even after that, in 15 days the prices of crude oil in India have increased by 50 percent.
According to experts, as long as the Homurz Strait remains closed or we can say that the supply from there remains less, the prices of crude oil and gas will continue to rise. If we look at it from India’s point of view, 80 percent of India’s total oil supply comes through here. Whereas 60 percent of the gas supply also passes through here.
Recently India has talked to Iran. Soon more Indian oil and gas ships will start passing through. Let us also tell you what kind of trend has been seen in the prices of crude oil in the last 15 days. Also, at what level the prices of crude oil can be seen in the coming days.
Crude oil of Gulf countries crosses 100 dollars
First of all, if we talk about crude oil of Gulf countries, it has crossed 100 dollars per barrel. A few days ago, the oil prices here had reached close to $120 per barrel. But after Trump’s statement that the war would end soon, the prices fell and the prices came down to below $ 90 per barrel. But Iran’s retaliatory attack and statements have once again increased the prices of crude oil.
If we talk about Friday, Brent crude, the crude oil of Gulf countries, closed at $ 103.14 per barrel with a rise of 2.67 percent. Whereas during the trading day the prices of crude oil had reached very close to $ 104 per barrel. However, during the trading session on March 9, the price of Brent crude had reached $ 119.50 per barrel.
Accordingly, crude oil prices are still $16 per barrel less than the recent peak. But in the last 15 days, i.e. since the start of the war, there has been a significant increase in the prices of crude oil. If we look at the data, on February 26, the price of Brent crude was $ 70.75 per barrel. Till now, an increase of 32 to 33 dollars per barrel i.e. 45.78 percent has been seen.
51 percent increase in American oil
On the other hand, there has been a tremendous increase in the prices of American crude oil. If we look at the data, there has been an increase of more than 51 percent in WTI crude in 15 days, which is much higher as compared to Gulf countries. The special thing is that at present the price of crude oil is less than $ 100 per barrel, but a few days ago the price had increased to more than $ 119 per barrel.
First, if we talk about Friday, the price of American crude closed at $ 98.71 per barrel with a rise of 3.11 percent. Whereas during the trading session the price of WTI also reached $ 99.31 per barrel. Although American oil had reached $ 119.48 per barrel on March 9, whereas at present the price has decreased by about $ 21 per barrel.
If we talk about 15 days, the prices of American crude have become more expensive than Brent crude. On February 26, the price of American crude oil was at $65.21 per barrel. Since then, it has seen an increase of 33 dollars per barrel i.e. 51.37 percent.
50 percent increase in India
If we talk about it, there has been a huge rise in the price of crude oil. In recent days, the price of crude oil had even crossed the level of Rs 10,000. After that the prices have come down a bit. Even after that the prices are Rs 9000 more. If we talk about Friday, the price of crude oil in India’s futures market Multi Commodity Exchange is up by Rs 248 at Rs 9,052 per barrel.
However, on March 9, crude oil prices had reached a life time high of Rs 10,549. At present the prices are about Rs 1400 less than the high. However, a huge increase in prices has been seen in the last 15 days. If we look at the data, on February 26, the price of crude oil had closed at Rs 6053. From then till now an increase of Rs 3000 has been seen. This means that an increase of 49.54 percent has been seen.
What is the future estimate?
Investment banks are seen increasing their estimates of crude oil prices. Some experts believe that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to the movement of tankers for several weeks, oil prices may rise to $ 150 per barrel or even more.
Macquarie analysts have warned of this potential surge in prices, while all other major investment banks have raised their first and second quarter estimates. Goldman Sachs estimates that the average price of Brent crude will be more than $ 100 per barrel in the month of March. According to the Wall Street Bank, if oil supply remains disrupted for months instead of a few weeks, prices could rise even higher.
At the same time, UBS estimates that if oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, prices will remain above $100 per barrel and may rise to the level of $120 per barrel. Earlier this week, Wood Mackenzie analysts said that Brent crude prices could rise to $ 150 per barrel in the coming weeks.