ICICI Securities on Thursday said its channel checks suggest that e-commerce growth in India accelerated to 15-20 per cent YoY in Q2FY26, driven by income tax cuts, GST reductions, and strong festive demand.
The brokerage expects Delhivery to benefit the most from this trend, thanks to its robust supply chain capable of handling demand surges without significant service quality impact. ICICI Securities estimated express parcel shipments to grow around 30 per cent YoY in Q2FY26, with 100 basis points QoQ improvement in adjusted Ebitda margins.
In quick-commerce, ICICI Securities expects Eternal’s Blinkit to sustain its strong growth trajectory, with 26-27 per cent QoQ growth, while Swiggy’s Instamart may accelerate sequentially (24 per cent QoQ) alongside improving profitability. In food delivery, rising competition is seen limiting margin expansion. ICICI Securities’ top picks are Delhivery and Swiggy.
Eternal: ICICI Securities projected Zomato’s GOV to grow 6.2 per cent QoQ/18.0 per cent YoY, with adjusted Ebitda of Rs 460 crore and an Ebitda margin of 4 per cent. For Blinkit, GOV is seen rising 26.5 per cent QoQ/143.9 per cent YoY, with adjusted Ebitda at minus Rs 100 crore and an Ebitda margin of minus 0.7 per cent (up 67 bps QoQ). Overall, the brokerage expects adjusted revenue growth of 49.4 per cent QoQ or 120.4 per cent YoY, adjusted Ebitda of Rs 230 crore and consolidated PAT of Rs 21.10 crore.
Swiggy: ICICI Securities sees food delivery GOV growth of 5.5 per cent QoQ or 18.6 per cent YoY for Swiggy, with adjusted Ebitda at Rs 210 crore(2.5 per cent margin). Instamart’s GOV is expected to grow 24.3 per cent QoQ or 107.9 per cent YoY, with adjusted Ebitda of minus Rs 890 crore, improving from minus 15.8 per cent in Q1FY26. Overall, adjusted revenue growth is projected at 7.1 per cent QoQ or 46.8 per cent YoY, with adj. Ebitda at Rs 800 crore.
Info Edge: Revenue is expected to grow 5.5 per cent QoQ or 18.4 per cent YoY to Rs 780 crore, with Ebitda of Rs 300 crore (39.1 per cent margin). Recruitment solutions revenue is seen rising 6.3 per cent QoQ or 16.4 per cent YoY, while 99acres is seen growing 26 per cent YoY. ICICI Securities expects recurring PAT of Rs 270 crore, up 5.1 per cent QoQ or 14.8 per cent YoY.
Delhivery: Express parcel volumes are expected to grow 29.7 per cent YoY or 15.4 per cent QoQ, with PTL volumes up 10.3 per cent YoY. Revenue is estimated at Rs 2,570 crore (up 12 per cent QoQ or 17.3 per cent YoY), adjusted Ebitda at Rs 110 crore (4.3 per cent margin), and net profit at Rs 120 crore.
Nykaa: ICICI Securities expects beauty revenue growth of 6.8 per cent QoQ/23.8 per cent YoY to Rs 2,110 crore, fashion revenue growth of 17.4 per cent QoQ or 20.9 per cent YoY to Rs 200 crore, and consolidated revenue growth of 7.6 per cent QoQ or 23.6 per cent YoY. Ebitda is projected at Rs 150 crore (6.7 per cent margin), with PAT of Rs 39.80 crore.
IndiaMart: Revenue is expected to grow 3.9 per cent QoQ/11.2 per cent YoY to Rs 390 crore, with 1,400 new subscribers. Ebitda is likely to remain flat at Rs 140 crore, while net profit may increase 9 per cent YoY to Rs 150 crore, despite a decline in margin to 35.1 per cent due to higher marketing spend, ICICI Securities said.
JustDial: Revenue is projected to grow 3.3 per cent QoQ or 8.1 per cent YoY, with paid campaigns up 2.3 per cent QoQ or 5.5 per cent YoY and Ebitda at Rs 92.20 crore (6.7 per cent QoQ or 12.4 per cent YoY).
Nazara: Revenue is expected to grow 77.8 per cent YoY to Rs 570 crore , with Ebitda at Rs 64.50 crore (11.4 per cent margin) and PAT at Rs 48.90 crore.
Matrimony: Revenue from matchmaking services is likely to remain flat YoY at Rs 120 crore, with Ebitda dipping 26.4 per cent YoY to Rs 12.80 crore and PAT at Rs 9.9 crore.