Barclays outlined potential merger-announcement windows before Tesla’s annual meeting or within six to 12 months if announced separately.
- His prediction surpasses Ron Baron’s $20 trillion to $50 trillion forecast for SpaceX within a decade.
- Retail traders speculated that Thursday’s Roadster event could include an announcement of a Tesla-SpaceX merger.
- The bank favored an all-stock SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, with its scenario giving Musk about 37% ownership and 56% voting power.
Elon Musk’s prediction that SpaceX could top $100 trillion in under 10 years comes as investors weigh a potential merger with Tesla. Barclays has outlined possible deal scenarios, while some retail traders are looking to Thursday’s Roadster reveal for an announcement.
TSLA stock closed Wednesday down about 2% at $367.16 and fell about 1.5% overnight heading into Thursday. SpaceX was down about 1.8% overnight.
“Unless there is a major world war, SpaceX probably gets to >$100T in <10 years,” Musk said on X. Musk’s forecast exceeds Ron Baron’s estimate that SpaceX could be worth $20 trillion to $50 trillion within a decade. “Elon thinks I’m way low,” Baron said. He expects Starlink alone to reach a $14 trillion to $15 trillion valuation over that period, with orbital data centers potentially becoming an even larger business.
TSLA Retail Eyes A Tesla-SpaceX Announcement
Tesla said that the Roadster event would stream Thursday at 7:55 p.m. Central Time. Sentiment on Stocktwits slipped further into ‘bearish’ territory from a day ago ahead of the event amid a 75% jump in 24-hour message volumes.
One user said, “The merger will 100% be announced tonight at the Roadster reveal!” Another user said, “Merger announcement coming tomo, timing is everything!”
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Meanwhile, another user asked, “Could the Roadster event be used to intentionally push down Tesla’s stock price before announcing the merger?”
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Barclays Maps Out A Potential Tesla-SpaceX Merger
On Wednesday, Barclays outlined a possible announcement before Tesla’s annual meeting, which the bank said must be held by Dec.6. It also considered a six-to-12-month window for an announcement unrelated to that meeting.
Barclays said a merger could integrate Tesla’s robotaxis and Optimus robots with SpaceX’s AI businesses, supported by the Terafab chipmaking project and eventual orbital data centers. Combining the companies could also eliminate separate board approval processes for Terafab. “While we suspect there would be some financial synergies, the true value would be in vertical integration,” the firm said.
The bank viewed an all-stock SpaceX acquisition of Tesla as the more likely structure for a potential deal. Its calculations gave Musk about 37% ownership and 56% of voting power in a combined company, reflecting SpaceX’s dual-class shares.
Musk Raises Expectations For Roadster’s Big Night
“The new Tesla Roadster is a candidate for greatest product demo of all time,” Musk said. “Let’s just say that this demo will be a BANGER, probably metaphorically, though some chance literally,” he added.
Barclays expects the demonstration to showcase SpaceX-developed cold-gas thrusters. Musk first outlined a proposed SpaceX package with about 10 small thrusters in 2018, saying: “Maybe they will even allow a Tesla to fly …”
The event follows a two-week postponement caused by high winds. Nearly nine years after its November 2017 unveiling, the Roadster remained in design development in Tesla’s second-quarter update, with its manufacturing location undetermined.
So far this year, Tesla’s stock has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s worst performer, down about 18%.
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