Mohamed El-Erian warned that new developments in the Iran conflict could trigger broader financial spillovers, including a “noticeable” shift toward cash.
- The Kobeissi Letter said that the planned 172-million-barrel SPR release could push U.S. oil reserves down about 41% to their lowest since the 1980s.
- Oil prices surged after Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed.
- WTI jumped 9.7% to $95.73 and Brent rose 9.2% to $100.46, the first close above $100 since August 2022.
U.S. stock futures traded higher late Thursday as investors monitored rising oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East, with analysts warning that the recent developments are casting a larger shadow over the global economic outlook.
As of 10 p.m. ET, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures were up by 0.4%. Dow futures were up 0.5%.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was ‘extremely bearish’ amid ‘high’ message volume, while sentiment toward the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was ‘bearish’ amid ‘high’ message volume, and sentiment toward the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) was ‘bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.
US Market Drivers
Stocks came under pressure during Thursday’s regular session as the surge in oil prices weighed on markets:
| Index | Move | Close |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -1.56% | 46,677.85 |
| S&P 500 | -1.52% | 6,672.62 |
| Nasdaq Composite | -1.78% | 22,311.98 |
Economist Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, said on X that recent developments in the Middle East conflict have challenged investors’ expectations for a quick end to the war.
“Overnight developments have shaken the market’s baseline assumption of a swift conclusion to the war and an imminent reopening of the Strait, casting a larger shadow over the global economic outlook,” El-Erian said, adding that financial spillovers are beginning to appear, including a “small as of now, but noticeable” flight to cash among investors caught in crowded trades.
Energy supply concerns have also intensified. The Kobeissi Letter said on X that the planned 172 million-barrel release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve could cut reserves by about 41% to roughly 243.4 million barrels, the lowest level since the 1980s.
Since 150 million barrels must remain for operational flexibility, The Kobeissi Letter said only about 93 million barrels would be available to draw, which is less than five days of oil supply normally passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices surged Thursday after Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.” West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 9.72% to $95.73 a barrel, while Brent crude climbed 9.22% to $100.46, its first close above $100 since August 2022.
To help stabilize energy markets, the U.S. plans to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over about 120 days, while the International Energy Agency has agreed to a coordinated 400-million-barrel release. The Trump administration has also temporarily authorized purchases of Russian oil already in transit, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called a “narrowly tailored, short-term measure.”
Trending Stocks To Watch On NYSE, Nasdaq
Adobe (ADBE): Shares fell about 8% in after-hours trading after CEO Shantanu Narayen said he will step down once a successor is named, even as the company reported 12% revenue growth to $6.4 billion for the first quarter (Q1).
B. Riley Financial (RILY): Shares rose about 4% in extended trading after the company announced senior note transactions that will cancel 1.34 million units of debt and reduce its total obligations by roughly $37.9 million.
Himax Technologies (HIMX): Shares gained about 3% after-hours following a Hunterbrook Media report that suggested the company could be a “stealth supplier” of light-routing components for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s co-packaged optics platform tied to Nvidia’s AI data center strategy, and may also be supplying parts for Apple’s upcoming smart glasses.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA): Shares slid roughly 8% in extended trading after the cosmetics retailer issued fiscal 2026 earnings guidance below Wall Street expectations despite reporting strong Q4 revenue growth.
CF Industries (CF): Shares rose about 3% after-hours as the fertilizer producer continues to benefit from surging global urea prices tied to supply disruptions from the escalating Middle East conflict.
How Global Markets Are Performing Today
In broader markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged up to 4.25%, extending a rally over the previous two sessions. Gold steadied after a two-day decline, with spot bullion trading near $5,090 an ounce after losing more than 2% over the previous two sessions.
Economist Peter Schiff said on X that the war’s inflationary impact and rising debt could support gold prices while weighing on stocks, bonds and the broader economy. He added, “It’s amazing that gold is still below $5,100. Buy some now while that’s still the case.”
Asian markets were weaker on Friday, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan falling about 0.7%, while stocks declined at the open in Japan and Australia.
Friday’s data slate features the Q4 GDP revision, PCE inflation data, personal income and spending, durable goods orders, job openings, and preliminary consumer sentiment.
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