Dow Futures Rise Ahead Of Inflation Data, But Nvidia Drags Tech — Strategist Warns Not To Bet On A September Fed Rate Cut Just Yet

Investors pushed down Nvidia’s stock in overnight hours despite the artificial intelligence chip giant’s second-quarter beat and positive outlook.

Nvidia Corp.’s (NVDA) stock retreat is weighing down on the Nasdaq 100 futures early Thursday, even as the rest of the major index futures stayed afloat ahead of key inflation data.

Investors pushed down Nvidia’s stock in overnight hours despite the artificial intelligence (AI) chip giant’s second-quarter beat and positive outlook. The sentiment may have been due to the company’s expectations of a slowdown in revenue growth amid the headwinds in China. 

As of 3:10 a.m. on Thursday, the Dow and S&P 500 futures were up 0.25% and 0.03%, respectively, while the Russell 2000 futures surged 0.44%. On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.10%.

On Wednesday, the market initially showed some early indecision amid mixed economic signals but traded in the green for the remainder of the session. The S&P 500 Index set fresh intraday and closing highs, ending higher for a second consecutive session.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the S&P 500 Index, gained 0.23%, and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) rose 0.15%. Meanwhile, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) advanced 0.34% and 0.56%, respectively.

On the economic front, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the personal income and spending report for July at 8:30 a.m. Traders will likely sift through the report to gain insights into the price consumption expenditure (PCE) index, also called the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.

The monthly rate of the core PCE index is expected to remain steady at 0.3%, while the annual pace of increase is expected to rise to 2.9% from 2.8%.

Advance July trade balance data, the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment data for August, and the ISM Chicago’s business barometer for August are also due for the day.

Bath & Body Works (BBWI), Best Buy (BBY), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Dollar General (DG), Hormel Foods (HRL), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI), Victoria’s Secret (VSCO), Affirm (AFRM), Ambarella (AMBA), Autodesk (ADSK), Dell (DELL), Gap (GPS), Marvel Technology (MRVL). SentinelOne (S) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) are among the notable names reporting on Thursday.

Even as the market has gone euphoric over a potential Fed funds rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, a strategist has poured cold water on the expectations. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Lisa Shalett, said the current bull run has gained steam due to an 80% chance of a cut in September. 

“But the odds may be closer to 50-50 due to strong economic indicators,” she said, adding that “Solid GDP growth, stable financial conditions, and low market volatility reduce pressure on the U.S. central bank to ease monetary policy.”

Crude oil futures have pulled back under the $64-a-dollar mark early Thursday, while gold futures traded above the $3,450 mark.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield remains under pressure amid rising odds of a rate cut. Early Thursday, it fell an incremental 1.9 basis points to 4.219%, a level not seen since April 7.

The U.S. dollar is mixed against the major global counterparts.

Most Asian stocks advanced, except for those in Hong Kong, tech-heavy Taiwan, and India.

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