The Middle East stands on a knife edge. Since the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas against Israel, the region has been engulfed by a series of confrontations, most alarmingly between Israel and Iran.
The conflict’s epicentre may lie elsewhere, but its effects are being felt directly in Jordan, a country caught between two powerful rivals, both viewed with suspicion by much of its population. How Jordan navigates this high-stakes moment without being drawn in militarily or politically may determine its regional role.
If Iran were decisively defeated in a future confrontation with Israel or the United states, the resulting vacuum could destabilise the MIDDLE EAST further.
Public sentiment is increasingly at odds with Jordan’s traditional balancing act. When asked, “If there were a conflict between Iran and Israel, who should Jordan support?”, polling by NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions, a research agency in Amman, found that 57.7 per cent believed that Jordan should support neither side, while 35.6 per cent favoured Iran and only 5.4 per cent Israel. This asymmetry reflects strong anti-Israeli feeling more than any real ideological affinity with Tehran. However, this perceived favourability is complicated by deep unease: 73.4 per cent of Jordanians are concerned about Iran’s influence. This duality of viewing Iran both as a symbolic counterweight and a destabilising force highlights Jordan’s strategic ambivalence.
Such sentiment places constraints on foreign policy. While 75.9 per cent of Jordanians support limiting ties with Israel, only 14.4 per cent favour stronger relations with Iran, suggesting a broad mandate for disengagement. Direct military intervention by the US has marked a dangerous turning point in the Israel-Iran conflict. While Trump had long claimed to be reluctant to enter new wars, the recent strikes represent a return to high-stakes US militarism in the region. Both Arab governments and the public view Washington’s stance not as a stabilising deterrent but as an overt alignment with Israeli strategic goals. The perception that peace under the current US leadership demands the political capitulation of Iran and Palestine has deepened public scepticism.
Analysts warn that if Iran were decisively defeated in a future confrontation with Israel or the US, the resulting vacuum could destabilise the region further. A weakened or dismantled Iran might pave the way for a resurgence of Sunni extremist groups, as seen in previous power vacuums across Iraq and Syria. The removal of a dominant Shia force could unsettle deterrence dynamics, empower non-state actors and intensify instability in areas where state authority is already fragile. The Levant, in particular, could see a rise in cross-border militant activity and the reorganisation of extremist networks eager to exploit sectarian grievances and weakened state structures.
The author is a media and research analyst at NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions, Amman.