Did ASTS Miss Its Rocket Lab Moment? Analyst Warns Deal Window May Be Closing, Floats Firefly As A Target

Analyst Tim Farrar also questioned AST’s launch capacity for a midband constellation.

Farrar warned that AST SpaceMobile’s opportunity to follow Rocket Lab’s acquisition strategy may be narrowing.
He floated Firefly as a smaller acquisition option, while suggesting a satellite operator would have been a more ambitious purchase.
Rocket Lab agreed in June to acquire Iridium for $8 billion, targeting a mid-2027 close.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) may be running out of time to follow Rocket Lab’s (RKLB) acquisition playbook, satellite communications consultant Tim Farrar warned, floating Firefly as a company he would have considered buying.

ASTS shares are down 13% this week, putting them on track for a third straight weekly loss, while RKLB’s 19% slide puts it in a second straight week in the red.

Farrar Questions AST’s Missed Deal Opportunities

“RocketLab used its equity to acquire other businesses while its stock was riding high. Now Iridium will generate cash for years to come. AST didn’t and it might soon be too late to try…” Farrar said on X.

When asked what he would have acquired for AST, Farrar pointed to a launch provider for a smaller deal: “In a smallish deal probably a launch company (e.g. Firefly), but a more ambitious deal would be buying a satellite operator like RocketLab did.”

His preferred spectrum strategy involved Viasat and Inmarsat, though he questioned its affordability. “Global consolidation of the L-band with Viasat/Inmarsat would be optimal but is probably no longer affordable,” he added. Farrar also criticized AST’s earlier pursuit of Sky & Space Global’s S-band licenses, saying it “could and should have been much more ambitious” last summer. Acquiring a launch provider, he said, “might be what they fall back to now.”

Rocket Lab’s $8B Iridium Bet In Focus

Rocket Lab agreed in June to acquire Iridium in a deal implying $8 billion in enterprise value. The terms offered $27 in cash plus RKLB shares, with a notional value of $54 per Iridium share at announcement. The companies are targeting a mid-2027 close.

In August, Farrar said both Rocket Lab and AST carried “very inflated valuations,” but argued Iridium’s existing cash flow and aviation, maritime and safety-related services gave Rocket Lab a different position from AST’s direct competition with Starlink.

Farrar previously identified AST as the most plausible candidate for the unnamed “Party B” in Iridium’s sale process. The bidder entered due diligence but withdrew without submitting an offer, and he said its identity was never confirmed.

AST Opened Door To Launch Deals

AST had already signaled interest in launch-related deals in its July announcement of a proposed $1 billion convertible notes offering. The company said proceeds could support “partnerships and/or acquisitions to further vertically integrate its business and mitigate risks associated with third-party launch providers.”

Farrar had said back then: “The ASTS press release makes it pretty clear they now intend to buy/invest in a launch provider.” AST also pushed its 45-satellite deployment target from end-2026 to early 2027, citing launch availability. Deal speculation resurfaced again last month after AST adopted an executive change-of-control severance policy.

Launch And Spectrum Concerns Mount For AST

SpaceX agreed recently to acquire Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio, subject to FCC approval and other closing conditions. AST, meanwhile, has pursued access to up to 45 MHz of lower-midband spectrum through Ligado and holds international priority rights covering 60 MHz of S-band spectrum.

While the company said BlueBirds 14-16 had arrived at Cape Canaveral, Farrar questioned why the update didn’t include a firm launch date. Assessing AST’s remaining launch capacity, Farrar outlined what eight New Glenn missions and two Falcon 9 flights could deliver: “If it truly is 8 NG and 2 F9 left, then that would be enough to get to 60 satellites (sometime in 2028 as I’ve been saying for months).”

His concern extended to launches for a midband constellation. “But that’s just a low band system with a tiny amount of spectrum. What do they plan to use for midband launches?” he asked, later reiterating that “only 10 more are contracted.”

Piper Sandler also downgraded AST to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’ and cut its price target to $54 from $98, citing concerns about its 2026-2027 launch schedule.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About RKLB And ASTS?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘extremely bearish’ for RKLB and ‘neutral’ for ASTS, with both tickers seeing ‘high’ message volume.

One user said, “$RKLB $SPCX There are only a handful of rocket companies out there, but an endless demand for launches already well booked up for the foreseeable future. It’s like 50 people trying to hail one cab in NYC during the rush hour at the same time. I’ll keep the rocket stocks.”

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Another user said about ASTS: “Unfortunately, they pay Space X to launch their satellites. Still bullish but it will take some time.”