The churn has begun in the political circles of the national Capital, where the assembly polls are due for early next year. The much beleaguered Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government would a third full term for themselves having won in 2015 and 2020.
They also enjoyed a 30-day government with the support of the Congress in 2013. Given the poor governance they have provided in the national Capital in the past 10 years and also the plethora of corruption charges against them, it would be difficult for them to gain upper hand in March 2025. However, that is feasible if the Congress once again decided to ‘not contest’the polls and put up its candidates only for academic reasons.
Since 2014 Lok Sabha polls, its evident in every election in Delhi that BJP in assembly polls, with poll not being a direct referendum on the leadership of Narendra Modi, fails to touch the mark of 40 per cent votes in its favour. In 2013 it garnered 33 percent votes, in 2015 37 percent and in 2020 polls 38 percent.
With Congress vote share not crossing in the double digit figures, the AAP not only won the elections but it number of seats crossed 60 mark on both the occasions in the 70-member house. In 2013 polls, when the Congress had garnered about 15 percent votes, AAP got 28 seats and BJP 32, with the Congress getting eight.
Whenever the Congress has contested hard in the local polls in the national Capital, be it 2017 Municipal Corporation polls or 2022 polls, it has ensured that the AAP juggernaut has been reined in. Thus the challenge before the Congress in Delhi is, whether to fight hard and create a base for itself but this could be at the risk of formation of a BJP government in the city.
However, in national politics, polls after poll it has been proven that AAP’s participation has led to a fragmentation of the anti-incumbency votes, impacting Congress’s ability to perform strongly. In the past decade AAP’s participation in assembly polls has ensured that BJP retaining power in the states of Manipur and Goa and most recently Haryana.
AAP’s presence contributed to the dilution of Congress’s vote share, benefiting the ruling parties. It doesn’t just stop there. It has almost replaced the Congress as the main opposition in Gujarat and replaced it as the ruling party in Punjab. The sum and substance being that AAP’s presence has benefitted the BJP and harmed the Congress.
Given this proposition, what stops the Congress from harming the interests of the AAP in Delhi ebven if it comes at the risk of BJP coming to power. The ruling party in Delhi has already started to make a dent in Congress rank and file. Chaudhry Zubair Ahmad, son of former five-time Congress MLA Mateen Ahmed, and his wife, Shagufta Choudhry, a Congress Councillor, joined Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) a few days back. Zubair was heading the Congress in the North-East district.
The conversations in the public transports, be it the jam-packed metros or the ramshackle buses, veer around to mourning the demise of Sheila Dikshit and how the city failed to take forward the legacy of development left behind by the late chief minister. This is true for the cabs and the autos too, where both the passengers and the drivers yearn for ‘the good old times’.
Who would meet this aspiration of the people? Congress is best suited today to engage on these lines. Nationally there are positive vibes for it in its traditional vote banks, even after setback in Haryana, and locally the field is ready to sow seeds to reap a political harvest in the spring of 2025.
But then what’s holding it back? The fear of BJP coming to power in Delhi? The Congress leadership must realise that once AAP is ousted from power in the national Capital, it would find itself handicapped to contest polls in states outside Delhi. Afterall Delhi Excise Scam chargesheet referes to the possibly of the money having gone for funding poll campaigns in Gujarat, Punjab and in Goa.
The Congress high command has shown political prudence in deciding not to contest the Uttar Pradesh bypolls just to to lose on the unwinnable seats doled out to them.Similarly they should show some farsightedness in Delhi too and neutralise the ‘enemy within’on its home turf itself.
So far the Congress in Delhi doesn’t seem to be capitalising on the goodwill for late Sheila DIkshit rekindled in the minds and heart of the people. Things may get too late before they lose advantage to AAP. In case they campaign to win, who knows they would have their government in Delhi Secretriat.
