Crude Oil Prediction: The Indian crude basket is projected to fall to around $50 per barrel, or even lower, by June 2026, as global crude oil prices soften significantly this year, according to an SBI Research report.
It added that the pace of decline in crude oil prices could be faster than in earlier cycles, despite ongoing geopolitical headwinds.
India remains heavily dependent on crude oil imports, and lower oil prices would help reduce the country’s import bill, offering macroeconomic relief.
SBI Research noted that since 2022, both Brent crude and the Indian crude basket have shown a clear downward trend, with geopolitical developments-such as the Venezuela-US situation-causing only temporary price spikes.
At present, Brent crude oil prices are trading at around $59.45 per barrel.
The report highlighted that the Indian crude basket has a very high correlation of 0.98 with Brent crude, indicating that any sustained decline in global crude oil prices is likely to pass through to domestic prices.
Technical indicators also point to further downside. Indian crude prices are currently trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signalling the possibility of continued weakness, the report said.
SBI Research has forecast Indian crude prices at around $53.31 per barrel by March 2026 and about $51.85 per barrel by June 2026.
Lower crude prices are expected to translate into softer retail fuel prices. According to the report, a 14 percent drop in the Indian crude basket in Q4FY26 could reduce CPI inflation by about 22 basis points, pushing average inflation in FY27 decisively below 3.4 percent.
The report further estimated that a 14 percent fall in crude prices could lead to nearly 3 percent appreciation in the rupee, taking the USD/INR exchange rate closer to Rs 87.9, with the trend likely to extend into FY27.
Lower energy prices are expected to provide a tailwind to the economy, with SBI estimating a 10-15 basis point positive impact on annual GDP growth due to softer crude prices.