A new study reveals the alarming possibility of the AMOC collapsing by 2100, triggering severe climate disruptions. Learn about the potential consequences and the urgent need for emission reductions.
Scientists have found that Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, might collapse in the near future. It is a key ocean current system that includes the Gulf Stream. It plays a crucial role in transporting warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic. However, with the ongoing trend of high greenhouse gas emissions, the power ocean current system could significantly slow down or stop entirely by the year 2100.
The Importance of the AMOC
The AMOC helps maintain the Earth’s climate balance. It moves warm water from the tropics toward the North Atlantic near the ocean surface, where it cools, becomes denser, and sinks, then flows back south at deeper levels. This cycle influences the weather patterns and spreads heat around the globe, especially in regions like Europe, North America, and parts of Africa and South America.
Consequences of a Collapse
The collapse of the AMOC could impact the climate significantly. Northwestern Europe might face harsher winters and drier summers. Tropical areas could experience major changes in rainfall. Experts say that extreme weather events around the world could worsen.
New Findings from a Study
These new warnings are based on a study led by Sybren Drijfhout from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, with the participation of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
The study used sophisticated climate models to forecast conditions up to the years 2300 and 2500, and the results were troubling. In all high-emission scenarios, the AMOC could fully collapse. The tipping point for the collapse starts in the cold waters of the North Atlantic, particularly in the Labrador, Irminger, and Nordic Seas, where deep ocean mixing usually occurs during winter.
This process happens when cold air cools the ocean surface, increasing its density, causing it to sink, and pulling warmer water up from below, which keeps the current running. However, when the heat rises, winter temperatures are no longer cold enough to cool the surface water sufficiently.
According to Stefan Rahmstorf, a co-author of the study, the models indicate that the critical tipping point could occur within a few decades, well before the year 2100.
Early Signs of Change
Researchers have already observed concerning changes in these northern seas in recent years. If these trends continue, the AMOC could collapse permanently, and once it passes the tipping point, it may not recover.
Potential Impacts of a Collapse
A shutdown of the AMOC would have serious global effects. Europe might experience colder winters and hotter summers. West Africa and South America could face disrupted rainfall patterns, severely impacting agriculture and water supplies. North America might see more frequent and severe storms. It could also affect the marine ecosystems due to changing ocean temperatures and currents.
This does not include the additional fresh water from melting Greenland ice, which the models did not account for.
What Can Be Done?
Experts say it might not be possible to prevent all changes to the AMOC, however, lowering emissions would significantly reduce the risk.
Rahmstorf says, “This is why it is crucial to cut emissions fast. It would greatly reduce the risk of an AMOC shutdown, even though it is too late to eliminate it completely.”
The study highlights the importance of rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.