India-China
For the last decade, China was dominated by the oil and gas market, but now it is decreasing and India is moving fast. Global commodity company Trafigura has said that soon India’s oil demand will overtake China. India is rapid industrialization, infrastructure is developing, middle class is increasing and people’s need to travel is also increased. For this reason, the demand for oil and gas is increasing. On the other hand, China’s economy is slowing down and the number of electric vehicles is increasing rapidly, due to which the demand for oil in China is decreasing.
On Monday, Sad Rahim, the chief economist of Trafigura at the appears program of S&P Global Commodity Insights, said that if the stocking part of China is removed, India’s oil demand will clearly go ahead of China. The number of urban areas of India is increasing and people’s income is also increasing, due to which the demand for oil is increasing rapidly. At the same time, China’s oil consumption is now increasing gradually and especially for petrochemicals.
Buying oil to make stocks
While the demand for oil in China is increasing slow, it is depositing a lot of oil in its stock. This means that China is currently buying more oil than its needs and is saving it for the future. Research head of Ganvor Group, Frederick Lasare, said that China is adding about 2 lakh barrels of additional oil to its stock daily in the last few months. This step is being taken to increase China’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). However, he also said that China will not be able to do this stocking for a long time and if there is more oil in the market, then it will be difficult to handle it.
Oil demand will decrease in 2026
The speed of increasing the demand for oil in the world will slow down. According to Saad Rahim of Trafigura, the demand for oil in 2026 will increase less than about 1 million barrels per day. At a time when OPEC+ countries are increasing their oil production capacity, then the supply of oil in the market will be more. This can put pressure on oil prices.
Big opportunity for India
The demand for oil in India is increasing rapidly, which is a sign of the country’s economic strength. But it is also a big responsibility for India. Given the needs of increasing oil, the country will have to pay special attention to its energy security. Also, it is necessary to adopt renewable and alternative energy sources, so that we do not have to depend completely on oil.
India’s economy is growing rapidly. According to a Moody’s report, India’s GDP may increase by 6.3% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026. This will make India the fastest growing country in G-20 countries. The demand for oil for transport in India is increasing and government oil companies are investing in increasing refining capacity. Due to this, the demand for oil will continue to increase continuously.