Analysts remain watchful of global geopolitical cues. A bullish setup is likely only if it sustains above 24,900–25,020, with FIIs showing signs of cautious optimism.
Indian equity markets opened on a subdued note, with the Nifty index trading below 25,000.
At 09:45 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 traded flat at 24,877, while the Sensex gained 49 points at 81,323. Broader markets too remain rangebound, with the Nifty Midcap gaining 0.1% and the Smallcap index trading flat.
The retail sentiment on Stocktwits for Nifty remained ‘neutral’ at market open.
Stock Watch
Sectorally, barring auto, pharma, and real estate, the rest of the indices traded in the green, led by energy.
Reliance Industries gained 2% after its telecom arm, Reliance Jio, discontinued its ₹209 and ₹249 entry-level plans, raising the base tariff to ₹299. Additionally, its FMCG arm, Reliance Consumer Products, forayed into the functional beverage market by acquiring a majority stake in a joint venture with Naturedge Beverages.
Textile stocks such as Vardhman Textiles (+9%), Ambika Cotton (+7%), Indo Count (+5%), Gokaldas Exports (+3%) rose after the Indian government removed 11% import duty on raw cotton till September 30.
Inox Wind rose 4% after it sold its entire stake worth ₹175 crore in its subsidiary Inox Renewable Solutions at a valuation of ₹7,400 crore.
Reliance Infra shares rose over 2% after securing a letter of agreement from NHPC for a 390 MW BESS project.
Vedanta rose nearly 2% ahead of a potential dividend announcement later this week.
Glenmark, Alembic Pharmaceuticals, and Sun Pharma shares traded under pressure after the US drug regulator said that these companies were set to recall products in the US due to manufacturing issues.
Markets: The Road Ahead
From a technical standpoint, SEBI-registered analysts on Stocktwits shared the trade setup.
Varunkumar Patel noted that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought equities worth over ₹500 crore in the cash market, signaling some return of liquidity. In F&O, they trimmed short positions as expected, indicating reduced bearishness. However, their overall positioning remains cautious, and fresh long buildup is yet to be seen.
Patel noted that there was around a 45% probability that Nifty would close above 24,900 today. If Nifty ends the week above 24,900, the market structure turns bullish, and from there onwards, every dip should be seen as a buying opportunity with strict stop-losses, he added.
Ashish Kyal said that if the Nifty index closes above 24,940 on the 15-minute timeframe, it can resume the uptrend to 25,020 levels, providing another scalping opportunity. He advised that positional trades can be taken for a trend back to 25,200 as long as the Gann level of 24,728 is intact.
Prabhat Mittal identified Nifty support at 24,780 with resistance at 25,020. For the Bank Nifty, he sees support at 55,300 and resistance at 56,200.
In crucial global developments, US President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and EU leaders to discuss a peace deal with Russia. While no conclusion was reached, there are high chances that Trump, Putin, and Zelensky will meet in the coming month. A likely framework could involve US security assurances to Ukraine and Russia retaining Donbas and annexed regions. If this path holds, a ceasefire announcement could follow.
Front Wave Research laid out two scenarios. If the talks succeed, oil prices continue to ease, the rupee strengthens, and India’s inflation stays stable. This boosts discretionary consumption, they noted. On the other hand, if the talks failed, volatility returns, but India remains relatively insulated via strong domestic flows, according to them. However, a key monitorable will be currency fluctuations, impacting FII flows into equity markets.
Global Cues
Globally, Asian markets traded mixed, while crude oil prices edged lower as investors monitored developments on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
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