In an exclusive chat with Asianet Newsable English’s Heena Sharma, foreign policy expert Dr Harsh Pant decodes Donald Trump’s claim on India halting Russian oil imports and explains why India won’t let Washington dictate its energy choices.
A single comment from US President Donald Trump this week reignited a complex debate at the heart of global energy politics. Speaking at the Oval Office alongside FBI Director Kash Patel, Trump claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him that India would stop buying oil from Russia — describing it as “a big step” towards isolating Moscow.
The claim was bold, the implications massive. For India, a nation balancing economic pragmatism with diplomatic agility, this raised a critical question: Can India afford to yield to US pressure — or even afford not to?
In an exclusive interview with Asianet Newsable English’s Heena Sharma, foreign policy expert Dr Harsh Pant shared his sharp insights into the global storm brewing around India’s Russian oil imports.
A Decline in Imports — But Why?
Between June and September this year, India’s state-owned refineries reduced Russian oil imports by 45%. The timing, coinciding with Trump’s claims, led many to assume that Washington’s pressure had begun to work. But foreign policy expert Dr Harsh Pant, Vice President of Studies in Foreign Policy at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), says otherwise.
“Some amount of recalibration from Russia was, of course, expected given that the upsurge in India’s buying of Russian oil had a lot to do with the kind of discounts that Russia at one point was offering India,” he explained.
According to Dr Pant, the drop in purchases was “partly to do with the US, but not driven largely by what Mr. Trump is saying.” Instead, he attributes it to economic logic and market adjustments. “Once those discounts ended and once the volatility in the global energy market also subsided to a certain extent, it was very clear that India would revert back and recalibrate its supplies.”
India’s Energy Independence: Politics Meets Economics
Dr Pant stresses that for India, energy imports are not a matter of political favour, but economic survival. “Oil and energy supplies in India will be determined largely by India’s own political economy because it is a very important ingredient in our economic growth. Any inflationary pressure on energy prices would have a devastating impact for a large part of our population,” he says.
He warns that any government “cannot afford to change the dynamic of the energy market and make it more volatile.”
The core message is clear: India’s choices on Russian oil are dictated by its developmental imperatives — not Washington’s talking points.
Private Players and the Long Game
While public refineries have scaled back, the question remains — what will India’s private sector do? Dr Pant expects them to act just as rationally. “Any sensible buyer would diversify in this day and age. So India has always done that.”
But he also notes that “these kinds of decisions have a long gestation period. To expect that overnight we will have our energy suppliers change is unrealistic.”
India’s refining infrastructure, he points out, has been calibrated to process Russian crude. “Any change is going to be a long-term change because it would require policy change, infrastructure change, and a reorientation in its foreign policy — which India at this point is not willing to do.”
Trump’s ‘Unreliability’ May Backfire
In one of the most striking parts of the conversation, Dr Pant suggests that Trump’s erratic diplomacy could actually push India closer to Russia — not away.
“If today what Mr. Trump has done with India, if anything, many in India would be much more comfortable saying that we need to build a solid energy partnership with Russia because who knows Mr. Trump can change on a dime,” he says bluntly.
Calling the Trump administration’s record “unreliable,” Dr Pant believes this unpredictability “may further strengthen India’s resolve to continue with Russia rather than decrease Russia.”
A Bargaining Chip for Washington
That doesn’t mean India has nothing to offer the US. Dr Pant highlights that “India like in the past can buy more energy from the US, and that is certainly something India can afford and put as a bargaining chip on the table as trade negotiations continue.”
To him, this isn’t about ending the Ukraine war. It’s about the US projecting its own energy might. “I think it’s partly to do with America itself and the Trump administration projecting its own energy capabilities, and partly to tell its base that Trump is doing something about the Russia-Ukraine war.”
A War That Isn’t India’s to Fight
For Dr Pant, the central irony of Trump’s approach lies in its misplaced blame. “This is not Modi’s war, this is not India’s war. This is primarily a war between Russia and the West,” he says, adding that India’s actions — or inactions — are unlikely to change its course.
“Even if India tomorrow decides to reduce completely its supplies from Russia, the war is going to continue because Russia has invested in the war far significantly enough both politically and militarily that it can’t go back without attaining certain objectives. And at this point, the war seems to be frozen and therefore we are seeing an escalation on the battlefield.”
The China Angle — and Trump’s Contradictions
When asked why Trump hasn’t been equally aggressive toward China’s dealings with Moscow, Dr Pant offers a pragmatic reading: “He still feels that there is a possibility there that he can explore, and therefore he uses China occasionally in his remarks.”
“Hypocrisy is everywhere when it comes to Mr. Trump,” he adds. “His calculations are far cruder and simpler — saying that, look, I want this deal. If I’m not getting an outcome, I will put pressure on third parties. In this case, India becomes a party to this problem.”
“If Putin had given him a good deal early on and ended the war, he would have been very happy. There would have been no issue. And in fact, a reasonable relationship between US and Russia serves India very well because ideally that would bring India out of the picture. But I think because the relationship has not gone between US and Russia under Trump along predictable lines as he had expected, he is frustrated and therefore he is targeting third parties like India,” Dr Pant added.
What Lies Ahead
Dr Pant predicts that India will keep balancing — recalibrating but not capitulating. “We will have a clearer idea of the data by early December and then we can make some assertions,” he notes, referring to upcoming trade and energy figures.
As Modi prepares to host President Vladimir Putin in December, all eyes will be on whether New Delhi tightens or deepens its oil ties with Moscow.
But one thing is certain: India’s energy diplomacy will remain guided by economics and national interest — not external pressure.