The Omar Abdullah government is facing its first test of popularity on the ground with Tuesday’s bypoll in Budgam, where the spotlight will be on the scions of its reputable Aga family.
The family has, in recent years, taken a high moralistic position on Kashmir’s politics and religion despite its own record of inconsistencies.
The by-election was necessitated after chief minister Omar Abdullah resigned from the seat last year. Unsure of victory after losing the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat, Omar had joined the fray from Ganderbal and Budgam, winning both before resigning from Budgam.
After a stellar performance in last year’s polls, the NC is facing growing accusations that it has failed to stand up to the Centre over the restoration of statehood and the fulfilment of other key election promises. However, it is not just the NC whose reputation is at stake in Tuesday’s polls.
For the PDP, the election will test its own claim of “resurgence” after last year’s poll debacle. All the while, it will be a test of the popularity of disgruntled NC leader and Srinagar MP Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, who has emerged as a key opponent of Omar within his party for the chief minister’s alleged lacklustre showing.
If the NC wins, Mehdi, a member of the Aga family, will also be a key loser. Budgam is Mehdi’s bastion, having represented it on multiple occasions in the Assembly. The Srinagar MP has decided not to support any party this time, including his own NC.
“I have not forced anyone to campaign for us, but tomorrow when we win, those who did not support us in our victory cannot join our celebrations,” Omar said ahead of the election, taking a jibe at Mehdi.
While one Aga is out of the campaign noise, it will still be a face-off between the Agas, with key parties NC and PDP giving mandate to other members of the family.
The fight between the Agas, in fact, conceals a much bigger fight that some members of the extended family have waged against the established political and religious class as they position themselves as the guardians of Kashmir’s rights.
The Agas are a notable Shia family of Kashmir who have wielded religious authority with varying degrees of political involvement. But they present a paradox – more pronounced this time with people like Mehdi positioning themselves as champions of Kashmir’s broader rights, while others plunge deep into the rough-and-tumble of the elections.
Like now, its family members have faced accusations of backing multiple political camps. The two most notable surviving Agas are Hurriyat leader Aga Syed Hassan and his nephew Mehdi, the Srinagar MP. Mehdi is also the son of Aga Syed Mehdi, a Congress leader killed by militants in 2000.
Hassan’s son, Agha Syed Muntazir Mehdi, is a PDP candidate, while his cousin Aga Syed Mehmood is the NC candidate. The BJP has also fielded an “Aga” – Syed Mohsin from Mirgund. Budgam’s Agas, however, deny he is part of the family. “This (contest) is all within the family,” Mohsin told The Telegraph on the contest in Budgam, suggesting they were with all parties.