Analysts highlighted strong operational drivers and strategic moves but warned of near-term technical weakness unless key resistance is reclaimed.
BSE shares fell nearly 2% on Thursday despite the exchange operator reporting steady first-quarter (Q1) earnings for FY26, with its profit more than doubling year-on-year.
SEBI-registered analyst Saurabh Sahu said the performance was driven by strong growth in trading activity, steady investment income, controlled expenses, improved margins, and profit contribution from CDSL.
He described Q1 as a “power-packed quarter” marked by record revenue, over 100% profit growth, bonus shares, and strategic investments for future growth.
SEBI-registered analyst Rajneesh Sharma noted that while the earnings were “fantastic” and supported by operating leverage, increased equity and derivatives activity, and margin expansion, charts were showing signs of exhaustion.
Q1 Earnings Snapshot
The company’s consolidated revenue from operations was at ₹95,839 crore and total income at ₹1,04,445 crore.
The net profit after tax was ₹53,817 crore, which is 104% higher than the year-ago quarter and 9% higher than the fourth quarter (Q4) of FY25. Earnings per share were ₹13.09.
On a standalone basis, total income was ₹94,837 crore and net profit was ₹46,840 crore, with EPS at ₹11.37 after factoring in an exceptional gain of ₹15.9 crore from the sale of BSE Institute.
Standalone profit rose 170% year-on-year and 17.9% sequentially.
During the quarter, BSE approved a ₹55 crore fund infusion in India International Exchange (India INX), completed the stake sale in BSE Institute, and executed a 2:1 bonus issue in May 2025, taking share capital to ₹813.4 crore.
Technical Breakdown
Sharma pointed to bearish relative strength index (RSI) divergence, rejection at ₹2,637.55, and a consolidation range forming with short-term support near ₹2,276.20 and a major base at ₹2,003.85.
He said the bias is cautiously bearish in the short term unless ₹2,637 is reclaimed with volume, while the long-term thesis remains intact.
Brokerage Calls
Brokerages remain split on BSE after its Q1 results. Nuvama raised its target price to ₹2,820 from ₹2,770, valuing the stock at 45 times earnings and factoring in the 15% stake in CDSL, while reiterating a ‘buy’ rating.
It cautioned that the planned shift of BSE’s expiry day to Thursday in September could trim index option average daily premium turnover by about ₹1,500 crore, as the gap between expiries narrows from three days to two, potentially lowering the premium-to-notional turnover ratio and pressuring margins.
Jefferies, meanwhile, maintained a ‘hold’ call but cut its target price to ₹2,790 from ₹2,900, noting that while the Q1 performance was strong, options volumes may remain soft.
It reduced earnings estimates by 5–6% to reflect slightly lower options trading activity, citing reduced volatility and uncertainty linked to U.S. tariff news and other events.
What Is The Retail Mood?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.
BSE’s stock has risen 32.9% so far in 2025.
For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<