BPCL is consolidating below key moving averages with mixed momentum signals, while fundamentals remain supported by government subsidies, improved refining efficiency, and renewable energy initiatives.
Shares of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) traded lower on Monday ahead of the company’s first-quarter (Q1) results due on August 13.
SEBI-registered analyst Deepak Pal said BPCL is currently consolidating below its 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) while holding above the long-term 200-day EMA at ₹292, suggesting a neutral-to-cautious technical structure.
Momentum indicators are mixed, with the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) in negative territory but still technically a ‘buy’, and the relative strength index (RSI) between 43 and 45, showing a neutral trend.
Pal noted that price is holding near support, with a move above ₹324–₹325 (50DMA) needed for bullish confirmation. A buy pivot appears to have formed around ₹310–₹312, indicating short-term bounce potential.
On fundamentals, Pal said BPCL operates India’s extensive refining and marketing network spanning fuel stations, LPG distribution, lubricants, aviation fuel, and oil pipelines.
Nomura has rated BPCL a top pick among state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) with a target price of ₹435, implying 26% upside.
He highlighted BPCL’s strategic pivot toward renewables, including a pilot wave energy project in partnership with Eco Wave Power.
The company has also diversified its crude sourcing by purchasing 9 million barrels of non-Russian oil for September–October delivery, improving supply flexibility.
Pal added that macro factors remain supportive, with the government approving a ₹30,000 crore subsidy package to compensate OMCs for LPG under-recoveries, alongside a broader ₹35,000 crore allocation for FY 2024–26 loss cushioning.
He said BPCL’s current neutral technical structure is supported by solid fundamentals, state backing, improved refining efficiency, and stable operations.
Partnerships in renewables add to its long-term growth potential. A positive Q1 result could catalyse a move toward ₹375–₹400 in the medium term.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘neutral’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.
BPCL’s stock has risen 8% so far in 2025.
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