BJP has achieved a big victory in Maharashtra due to the clever politics of Devendra Fadnavis. Even after losing Mumbai Corporation, Thackeray brothers have saved their vote bank. Now there is a tussle going on between BJP and Shinde faction for the post of Mayor.
In a caste-based state like Maharashtra, it was considered difficult for a Brahmin leader to emerge as a leader with a large support base. But looking at the way Devendra Fadnavis has won political forts and played political maneuvers in the last two years, it seems that he is standing in the front row after Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath. Prashant Natu’s report…
For the past one month, whenever a journalist asked a question, Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde used to say that a Hindu Marathi from the Mahayuti alliance would become the Mayor of Mumbai. But within 24 hours of the results coming out, a tussle has started between BJP and Eknath Shinde over who will become the Mayor of Mumbai. The situation is such that Shinde Saheb took his 29 councilors to a five-star hotel and said, ‘BJP people may try to break you. So wait here for 72 hours. According to sources, due to the birth centenary of Balasaheb Thackeray, Shinde is pressurizing BJP to give him the post of Mayor for 2.5 years. Shinde’s calculation is that Congress, Owaisi and Uddhav Thackeray will not join BJP under any circumstances. Therefore, he is necessary for BJP to come to power. On the basis of this mathematics, Shinde is trying to get his point across to BJP. In a way, today’s political alliances in Maharashtra are akin to ‘Who’s who, this is a world of borrowing, water bubbles are not real’.
Thackeray’s ‘Oxygen’ closed
BJP had understood in 2020 that it was impossible to defeat the Thackeray family politically without capturing the Mumbai Municipal Corporation with a budget of Rs 70 thousand crore. This happened when Uddhav Thackeray left BJP and joined hands with Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP. That is why Prime Minister Modi, Amit Shah and Devendra Fadnavis thoughtfully defeated Eknath Shinde and brought him to their side. BJP’s plan completely backfired in the Lok Sabha. But in the Assembly and Mumbai Municipal Corporation elections, everything happened as per the thinking of BJP. After 35 years, the hen that lays the golden egg has come out of the hands of the Thackeray family and has come into the hands of BJP and Shinde’s Shiv Sena. There is no difference between money and water in Maharashtra elections. Only when seen from this perspective, the significance of the loss of power in Mumbai from the hands of the Thackeray family and coming into the hands of BJP will be understood. Ruling the Mumbai Municipal Corporation is like running the governments of many African countries. It is also an interesting question that how will the Thackeray family carry forward their politics without the ‘oxygen’ provided by Mumbai Municipal Corporation.
Clever Fadnavis’ strategy
There has always been a social and political gap between Brahmins and Marathas in Maharashtra ever since the Peshwa became the center of power by becoming the minister of the Maratha Empire. Therefore, it was considered difficult for a Brahmin leader to emerge as a leader with a large support base in a caste-based state like Maharashtra. But a shrewd politician like Devendra Fadnavis has surprised everyone by giving BJP the upper hand from the Assembly to 25 out of 29 metropolitan municipalities and more than 100 municipalities. Despite coming from a Brahmin community comprising just 3% of the population and facing a reservation movement from the powerful Maratha community, Fadnavis won the assembly by cleverly pooling together the votes of other communities. Now, in the local body elections, he has been successful in politically weakening Sharad Pawar and the Thackeray family. Not only this, through the election results he has also given a message to BJP leaders like Nitin Gadkari, Vinod Tawde and Pankaja Munde that he will take the final decision in Maharashtra. If we look at today’s situation, there seems to be no one who can surpass Devendra in strategy, administration and political moves. It seems that Modi ji’s ‘caste-neutral’ experiments in Gujarat were implemented by Devendra Fadnavis in major caste strongholds like Maratha-dominated western Maharashtra and Marathwada, which helped him gain power. Looking at the way Devendra Fadnavis has won political forts and played political maneuvers in the last two years, it seems that he is undoubtedly standing next in line after Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath in the list of ‘Who after Modi’.
Thackeray is still alive!
No matter how powerful the enemy is, whether he brings big guns or spends rivers of money; If commanders resolve their internal conflicts and fight with the unwavering spirit of the soldiers, they can be defeated, but they cannot be destroyed – this is what the battle of Mumbai has shown to the enemy. In 2022, BJP will destroy Uddhav Thackeray’s party by 75%. Then BJP and Shinde together defeated 55 out of 84 councilors and more than 100 branch heads of Uddhav Thackeray. An attempt was made to weaken the economic power of Uddhav Thackeray by delaying the Municipal Corporation elections for 4 years. When both Uddhav and Raj understood that sometimes survival is more important than winning, they forgot their old enmity and united.
Despite knowing that Muslim votes would be divided, he broke the alliance with Congress and started campaigning only for ‘Marathi Manush’. It is true that this caused Gujaratis, Marwaris, Tamils and Biharis to completely move to BJP, but about 50% of the staunch Marathi voters who liked the real Balasaheb Thackeray remained with Uddhav and Raj Thackeray. It is a matter of consolation for the Thackeray family that despite losing power in Mumbai, the ‘Thackeray brand’ voters have not abandoned them. There is a saying in the science of warfare, ‘It is okay even if you get injured in the battlefield, it is okay even if you lose sometimes. It is important to stay alive by fighting. It can be fought again some other day. This seems to be what the Thackeray brothers have done by coming together in this election.
condition of the rest
The truth is that the entire Maharashtra has become more ‘BJP-oriented’ than Mahayuti. Ajit Pawar has lost his strong forts like Pune and Pimpri and given them to BJP. Pawar’s strongholds Solapur, Sangli, Satara, Kolhapur and Karad have also turned into BJP’s colours. BJP workers have now started openly saying that the alliance with Ajit Pawar is enough. In a way, Ajit Dada has become even more politically weak. At the same time, it is true that the Eknath Shinde faction along with BJP has taken a share of power in Mumbai, Thane, Nashik and Navi Mumbai, but the reality is that they have not been able to defeat Uddhav Thackeray in a direct contest in the Marathi speaking wards of Mumbai. Just like they broke Uddhav Thackeray’s party earlier, for BJP’s dream of a single-rule, if the need arises in future, it will not be surprising if BJP breaks Shinde’s army also.